Tesla loses field in Europe would make investors difficult, says strategist

View of the traffic sign “Tesla Straße 1” in front of the construction site of the Tesla factory. Tesla boss Musk visits the construction site of his electric car factory.

Jorg Carstensen | picture alliance | Getty Images

Tesla is relinquishing land in Europe, and according to recent statistics, its Model 3 is now only the fourth best-selling pure electric vehicle (EV) on the continent.

The European EV market is now the largest in the world in terms of sales after a boom in 2020, coupled with a slump in China. The share of registrations for new electric cars is twice that of China and five times that of American cars

In a note on Wednesday, Saxo Bank chief equity strategist Peter Garnry said Tesla shareholders had been ‘troubled’ by Renault, Volkswagen and Hyundai over the past few months.

“Tesla will be successful and become one of the largest automakers in the future, but the competition is growing and this puts the $ 805 billion market value in doubt,” Garnry said.

Tesla’s share has risen by more than 21% in the first two weeks of 2021, rising by more than 700% in 2020.

Garnry noted that European registration numbers from November to November showed that plug-ins, a combination of pure electric and hybrid vehicles, rose by 198% year-on-year, while the total number of registrations across the continent by 14% has dropped.

Insert vehicles now account for about 10% of the total market share in Europe, with pure EVs representing about 5.4%.

Garnry said customers argued that Tesla’s sales were usually stronger in the last month of the quarter, but stressed that sales declined in October and November.

On the latest EV rankings, the Renault Zoe retained first place, followed by the VW ID.3, according to sales figures from the EV Volumes database of the plug-in vehicle. Hyundai’s Kona was third ahead of the Tesla Model 3.

“While this should worry Tesla shareholders, it is even more striking that the Model S and X are not in the top 20 rankings, although direct models such as Audi e-tron are on the list,” Garnry added.

Tesla was not immediately available for comment when CNBC contacted him.

On Thursday, Renault’s new CEO, Luca de Meo, announced that the French carmaker would work towards a more electric range, along with building a battery factory in France with one of its suppliers.

“We’ll be moving from a car company that works with technology to a technology company that works with cars,” said de Meo.

China demands ‘heart and lungs’

Tesla’s share is currently changing from $ 845 per share, and US investment firm Wedbush Securities on Thursday raised its price target to $ 950 per share from $ 715, with a bullish scenario of $ 1,250.

Wedbush cites an increase in demand for EVs and the Model 3 from China, which he says is the ‘heart and lungs’ of the case for owning Tesla shares.

“Although more than 150 carmakers worldwide are aggressively attending the EV event, we currently believe it’s Tesla’s world and everyone is paying rent,” Wedbush analysts Daniel Ives and Strecker Backe said in the note.

They predicted that by 2022, more than 40% of Tesla’s total delivery sales would come from China, while the Democrats, who control all three branches of the US government, would provide a significant boost for EVs, given President-elect Joe Biden’s climate agenda.

“We believe the China growth story is worth at least $ 100 a share in a Tesla midterm, as this EV penetration will increase significantly over the next 12 to 18 months, coupled with major battery innovations emerging from Giga 3 (Teslas). come. Shanghai factory), ‘they said.

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