Federal officials warned this week that the U.S. may be on track for another increase in Covid-19 cases, which is haunting Europe by a few weeks in a pattern seen throughout the pandemic.
European countries that are now implementing new barriers amid a surge in infections have each taken an upward trend after ignoring well-known mitigation strategies, Drs. Rochelle Walensky, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said it was a warning sign for the US.
France on Friday imposed a monthly lockout in Paris and other parts of the country. Italy introduced new restrictions earlier this week.
The US has generally been following the European Union for several weeks in the dynamics of the outbreak, Dr Anthony Fauci said this week. In Europe, cases came down, flattened and then countries returned to the mitigation methods and had a rebound in cases, he said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
“They are currently undergoing a rebound, which is really something we absolutely want to avoid,” said Dr. Fauci said. He added that, given the current level of community infection in the US, it is dangerous to withdraw from all preventative modalities.
A Wall Street Journal analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University shows that in 25 states, the average number of new cases over the past seven days is greater than the average number of cases over the past 14 days, indicating that the cases increase. These states include Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut. The number of states tending in this direction has been rocking in recent weeks, increasing from just five states a month ago.
The U.S. is made up of many local epidemics, with different patterns in states governed by community decisions on interventions and vaccinations, said Yonatan Grad, an assistant professor of immunology and infectious diseases at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. .
“I do not know that it makes sense to compare the whole US with what is happening elsewhere,” said Dr. Grad said.
As the number and hospitalizations in cases increase in places where restrictions have been lifted and pubs, restaurants and more activities have reopened, this raises concerns about an increase in transfer, Drs. Grad said. In those places, the expectation is that the numbers will continue to rise, he added.
In Michigan, case positivity has been increasing for more than three weeks, with each region either flat or with increasing positivity, according to data found by the University of Michigan. According to the CDC, the highly transmissible coronavirus variant first identified in the UK is known as B.1.1.7, common in the state, with 616 cases.
Initially, the decline in the new Covid-19 cases after Michigan was constant in Michigan, and then it stopped and increased, said Emily Toth Martin, an epidemiologist on infectious diseases.
The number of cases in younger age groups, under the age of 50, is increasing, said dr. Martin said, and there are reports of cases occurring around school-related activities outside the classroom.
Anthony Fauci, director of the NIAID, says it is risky to retreat to public health measures because cases can become plateau and then recover, as in Europe.
Dr Martin said he is working with a team doing genomic sequencing of Covid-19 cases. In Michigan, she said, they test for variants within known clusters, rather than random sampling in the community.
“If you compare us to a condition that is randomly sampled in the community, it seems like we have a variation problem,” said Dr. Martin said, “if we really look for it in a more focused way.”
The British variant is not the dominant tribe that moves through the community, said dr. Martin said. Instead, the increase in number of cases is driven by changes in behavior, more mobility and more openness.
This will lead to fluctuations in the number of cases, especially because the number of people vaccinated within the community is not that high, she said. About 22% of residents got at least one chance, according to a journal analysis of CDC data.
“We go out a bit about our skis, because we have a lot of enthusiasm to re-engage and to re-open things and have meetings again, while none of the people involved are actually protected or immune,” he said. dr. Martin said.
Overall, the Covid-19 positivity rate in the US is down, with a seven day average of 4.1%. According to CDC data, Covid-19 cases per capita are highest in the 18 to 24 age group, followed by those 25 to 34.
The possible plateau comes because the vaccination campaign in the US, which is seen as the key to ending the pandemic, is accelerating. Last week, the country passed the milestone of 100 million administered vaccine doses. And on Friday, the U.S. reached President Biden’s goal of delivering 100 million doses of vaccine during his first 100 days in office, weeks ahead of schedule. The rate of vaccination is now averaging 2.5 million doses per day; according to Johns Hopkins data, nearly 12% of the U.S. population has been vaccinated.
By comparison, 3.68% of Italians, 3.64% of Germans, 3.37% of French and 2.65% of British residents were vaccinated, according to Johns Hopkins. The EU vaccination effort has been hampered by a shortage of doses, which is likely to give only a small section of the general public a chance by the end of the summer, while accelerating the spread of many contagious coronavirus variants across the region.
According to CDC data, the majority of Americans who are fully vaccinated are 50 years and older.
But because the U.S. decides to prioritize a limited number of vaccinations for older or vulnerable adults – who are at greater risk for serious complications and death from Covid-19 – this means that those who are more likely to be in the community, will be vaccinated later, according to dr. Martin and dr. Grad.
“It makes sense, if your goal is to reduce deaths, to focus on those who are most at risk of dying if they are infected,” said Dr. Grad said, adding: “there are some contexts where you want to vaccinate those who want the highest vaccination to send to pick up cases, to reduce deaths.”
Write to Melanie Grayce-West at [email protected]
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