More European sanctions against Russia could be announced next week, but not even the humiliation of the EU’s foreign policy chief during a visit to Moscow last week is likely to sharpen the policy’s sadly divided policy towards the Kremlin, analysts say.
Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, was hit hard this week by MPs, diplomats and observers, who were mostly played out as an embarrassment by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
But experts say the latest battle between the EU and Russia is unlikely to lead to an immediate hardening of the bloc’s stance on an increasingly assertive Moscow, as member states cannot agree on Vladimir Putin’s dealings.
Borrell’s trip, opposed by some member states, culminated in a press conference during which Lavrov accused EU leaders of lying about the poisoning of prison opposition figure Alexei Navalny and called the bloc an ‘unreliable partner’. .
Borrell, after the press conference ended, later learned from Twitter that Russia had suspended diplomats from Germany, Sweden and Poland for allegedly attending demonstrations in support of Navalny.
The former Spanish foreign minister told parliamentarians on Tuesday that he wanted to see if Moscow “is interested in a serious effort to reverse the deterioration of our relations, and is using the opportunity to engage in a more constructive dialogue”.
The answer was clear, he said, “It is not.” Russia “did not live up to expectations of becoming a modern democracy”, he said, and was “gradually shutting itself off from Europe by viewing democratic values as an existential threat”.
Borrell said there was “deep disappointment and growing mistrust” between the two parties and that he would propose further concrete steps, including sanctions, against Moscow for Navalny’s imprisonment ahead of a meeting of EU foreign ministers on 22 February.
Since then, Lavrov has responded by saying that it is the EU that is alienating Russia and Russia’s desire to re-establish a relationship ‘not based on unilateral demands, but on mutual respect and consideration of each other’s interests’.
More than 70 MPs have signed a letter demanding that Borrell resign. Dacian Cioloș, a Romanian MP and leader of the centrist Renew group, said the visit “unfortunately had a negative effect on the EU’s credibility in the diplomatic sector”.
Others, however, acknowledged a bigger problem. Dutch Socialist MP Kati Piri ‘abused’ Borrell’s visit to humiliate and offend the EU, but the result may not have been the same “if EU leaders took a tougher stance … We have a need a united strategy on Russia. “
Reinhard Bütikofer, a leading German Green MP, made much of the same point, describing the visit as a failure, but noted that Borrell ‘had gotten a bad hand due to the lack of unity in the [European] Council “.
However, EU unity over Russia is unlikely to appear any time soon. Despite growing concerns about Moscow’s behavior in many capitals, there is widespread disagreement over how to respond, with national strategic and economic interests far from agreeing.
Germany, which played a key role in EU sanctions against Russia following the annexation of Crimea in 2014, resists calls to return from the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project and prefers targeted sanctions against wealthy Kremlin supporters.
Meanwhile, Emmanuel Macron of France is still in favor of dialogue and a strategic ‘recovery’ in EU-Russia relations, while Poland and the Baltic states want much stricter action.
“Moscow knows what he wants from the EU: a relationship based on separate dealings with each member state,” said Judy Dempsey of the Carnegie Europe tank. “On the other hand, the EU and the member states together do not know what kind of dialogue or relationship they want with Russia.”
Like his predecessors, Borrell had to fall short because the bloc did not have a real European strategy, which ‘combines values, common interests and objectives’, Dempsey said. “Until now, national interests in Europe have prevented this from happening. It’s hard to see that changing. ”
Nicu Popescu of the European Council on Foreign Relations argued that European efforts to restore relations with Russia were doomed to failure because they were ‘based on the idea of mutual concessions’.
The Russian thinking, Popescu said, was that if the west wanted recovery, it was in the west to lay off, meaning that ‘every new reset offer only incites the Russian unwillingness to really get involved’.
A muscle approach can produce better results, he added. “Maintaining sanctions pressure, abandoning Nord Stream 2 and fostering deeper security partnerships with the EU’s eastern neighbors could be a rocky but ultimately safer way to enter into talks with Russia again.”