Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will on Tuesday contest his fourth election in two years and fight for a parliamentary majority that could help him get his ongoing corruption trial under way.
Why it matters: Three undecided elections have left Israel locked in a long political crisis as Netanyahu fights for his political and legal survival. This time, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister faces a divided opposition and has a clear opportunity to eventually win a 61-seat majority.
The state of affairs: The latest polls show that Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc and a broad anti-Netanyahu bloc have both won 60 seats.
What to look for: If Netanyahu reaches 61, he will form the most religious and conservative coalition in the country’s history. Its rivals claim that such a government could challenge the democratic character of the country.
- Netanyahu denies plotting to fire the attorney general or enact laws to suspend his corruption trial, but several of his prospective coalition partners have expressed support for such steps.
- If Netanyahu’s bloc fails to win a majority, Israel will likely be heading for a fifth round of elections.
Send the news: Both Netanyahu and his primary rival, centrist Yair Lapid, rallied on the eve of the election.
- Lapid should increase the turnout in Tel Aviv, Haifa and the other major cities in central Israel.
- Netanyahu is trying to mobilize voters in his Likud party’s strongholds in northern and southern Israel and in Jerusalem.
- The result could be that small parties on both sides reach the election threshold of 3.25% to enter the Knesset.
- The rise among Israel’s Arab minority, which is expected to decline this time around, will also be crucial in determining the outcome.
Flash back: Netanyahu and his central rival, Benny Gantz, signed a power-sharing agreement last April that angered many of Gantz’s supporters by allowing Netanyahu to retain power for 18 months, while stipulating that Gantz would then become prime minister. perform.
- Before power could change hands, the government collapsed in December, along with Gantz’s political prestige.
Zoom in: One of the most interesting players in this election is Naftali Bennett, a right-wing former tech entrepreneur who until recently was seen as a kingmaker because no single group would have been able to reach 61 without him.
- His party’s poll numbers began to slide as Netanyahu told supporters Bennett would link Lapid to his Conservative allies.
- Under pressure, Bennett went to a pro-Netanyahu channel and signed a document on live TV, promising not to join a Lapid-led government – effectively aligning himself with Netanyahu.
What’s next: Exit polls are published at 21:00 local time (15:00 ET), but participants will be extra careful as thousands of ballots are counted late due to COVID-19 restrictions.
The conclusion: These elections are likely to be decided by one or two seats, which means that a few thousand votes could change the outcome and the whole country.
Go deeper: Thousands protest outside Netanyahu’s home.