COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations continued to tumble in California on Thursday, and state models are increasingly positive about the outlook for the pandemic.
According to data compiled by this news organization, 5,525 new cases were reported on Thursday. According to California, the average week has dropped to its lowest point since the first week of November in the past week, while the number of California residents hospitalized with COVID-19 fell below 6,000 for the first time. time since before Thanksgiving.
Cases in California have declined 87% from last month’s high and have been reduced by more than half in the past two weeks. According to state data, hospitalizations have fallen by 73% from last month’s high and by 43% in the last two weeks to an active total of 5,934.
By the time next month, according to state models, there may be fewer Californians in the hospital than any other time in the record books of the pandemic, which dates back to the last days of last March. According to state models, active hospitalizations would have fallen below 2,000 by March 24, and the total is expected to drop to nearly 1,000 within a week.
For nearly 11 months, at least 2,000 Californians were hospitalized for COVID-19 at one time. The only period of the pandemic recorded in California, with less than 2,000 active hospitalizations, was during the first four days of record keeping, from March 29 to April 1 last year.
To reach the projected total next month, hospitalizations in California will have to drop another 82%.
As the transfer dropped, hospitalizations followed.
When California launched its updated modeling tool in the second week of December, the virus’ reproduction rate in the state was 1.2, meaning that a single infected person would spread the virus to an average of more than one person, a formula for exponential growth.
Now, the nationwide “R-effective” rate has dropped to 0.69, and the distribution is likely to decrease, which according to state models means a rate of 0.9 or lower in all but seven countries. In the Bay, reproduction rates range from 0.83 in Marin County to 0.64 in Alameda County.
As a region, the improvement of the Bay Area has been slightly surpassed by the state. Business in the region has fallen by 83% over the past two weeks from last month’s high and 47%. Southern California is averaging a tenth of the cases since its peak last month, with a 55% decline over the past two weeks.
With a peak rate of infection last month more than double the Bay Area’s per capita percentage, the daily 13.8 daily cases per 100,000 California residents last week remained higher than the Bay Area’s 10.5 per capita. 100,000, despite a drastic decline.
Southern California is still feeling the effects of the largest and most sustained outbreak of the state, which is once again responsible for the majority of deaths reported on Thursday, although it is less than the extraordinary share in the region of the total death toll. .
On Thursday, California’s death toll rose to 51,384 with 394 new deaths.
Los Angeles County reported 115 new deaths, followed by 42 in Riverside County, 41 in Orange County and 30 in San Diego County.
In total, Southern California accounted for about 65% of the fatalities in the country on Thursday and has been responsible for nearly three out of every four deaths since the start of the pandemic, despite being just under 60% of the population of constitute the state.
In the Bay Area, 51 deaths were reported among the locals, led by 19 in Contra Costa and 18 in the provinces of Santa Clara. Alameda County also added six deaths, and San Francisco reported four. In the course of the pandemic, the region claimed about one in nine of California’s deaths, while about one in five Californians was home.
Deaths are occurring everywhere in smaller numbers than this time last month. After a month, the death toll from California, according to state models, would have increased by less than 4,000 and risen to 55,000 by March 20th.