BRISTOL, United Kingdom – According to a study just released by a team in the UK, very intense world weather could be forecast for particularly intense winter weather in the coming weeks. Researchers report that a major meteorological event is taking place high in the sky above the North Pole.
It is estimated that this sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) will occur in early January 2021. What exactly does this mean? Earth’s stratosphere is a layer of the atmosphere that is located about six to 30 miles above the ground. Scientists consider a SSW event to be one of the most extreme atmospheric phenomena. This usually leads to an increase in temperature of about 122 degrees Fahrenheit within a few days!
(Credit: University of Bristol)
SSW events are known to cause periods of extreme cold weather and intense snowstorms. Recently, an SSW in 2018 called the “Beast from the East” brought heavy snowfall to the UK, Ireland and much of Europe.
Why does warming in the atmosphere lead to winter weather?
As the warm air in the stratosphere shoots downward and moves toward the planet’s surface, there is a shift in the jet stream that causes very cold temperatures across Europe and North Asia. As far as that happens, the timeline can vary considerably. Sometimes the hot air takes weeks to reach the surface, but in other cases it arrives within a few days.
Researchers have analyzed 40 previous SSW events that have taken place over the past 60 years. The team also developed a way to track the signal of an SSW downward from the air to the surface.
Where is the ‘animal’ headed?
Study authors say regions such as Siberia and Northern Europe have an increased risk of extreme winter weather and snowstorms in the coming weeks.
‘While an extreme cold weather event is not a certainty, about two-thirds of SSWs have a significant impact on the weather on the surface. What’s more, the modern day SSW is possibly the most dangerous type, where the polar vortex is divided into two smaller ‘child projections’,’ says dr. Richard Hall, lead study author at the University of Bristol.
‘The extreme cold weather that this breakdown of polar vortices brings is a strong reminder of how we can suddenly turn again. Even with climate change warming our planet, these events will continue to occur, which means we need to adapt to an increasingly extreme temperature range, ”adds Bristol Dann Mitchell, an associate professor of atmospheric science.
‘Our study quantifies for the first time the probability when we can expect extreme weather on the surface after a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). It varies a lot, but it is important that the impact occurs faster and stronger following the events in which the stratospheric polar vortex is divided in two, as predicted in the current event. Despite these advances, there are still many questions about the mechanisms that cause these dramatic events, and how they can affect the surface, and so this is an exciting and important area for future research, ‘concludes the co-author of the study , dr. William Sevior, at the University of Exeter.
The study was published in the Journal of Geophysical Research.