Prince Mohammed bin Salman, right, welcomes Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani to Qatar in Al Ula, Saudi Arabia on January 5.
Photographer: Anadolu Agency / Getty Images
Photographer: Anadolu Agency / Getty Images
On a day when Saudi Arabia shook the oil market with a decline in production, calling it a ‘gesture of benevolence’, the kingdom’s de-facto ruler took center stage in a mirrored concert hall, ready for a solve another crisis.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman led the split with Qatar for more than three years. But now it was just two weeks before a new US leader took office, and President-elect Joe Biden promised to treat Saudi Arabia as a ‘pariah’. Combined with threats from Iran and a weakening economy, the prince’s calculation shifted: reconciliation seemed better than conflict.
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Then on Tuesday, while television cameras were rolling in the north-eastern Saudi city of Al Ula, Prince Mohammed embraced the ruler of Qatar and ended the rift, posing as a peacemaker. Hours later, Saudi Arabia announced that it would reduce oil production by a million barrels a day to support co-producers’ prices – a mandate that, according to the energy minister, comes directly from the crown prince and which leaves the shares of US energy companies has risen.
With these moves, Prince Mohammed underlined his public presence with a conciliatory tone – at least for now. Since the 35-year-old prince came to power in 2015, the world’s biggest crude exporter has entered into a series of uncharacteristic high-risk ventures: a war in Yemen, which partially severed ties with Canada, and a bitter oil price war with Russia. , and flanked by a trade war with Turkey.
New approach
One Gulf-based diplomat, who asked not to be named and discussed Saudi internal politics, described Prince Mohammed as an attempt to pull two leverage at the same time. With one, he says what gains he can get from Donald Trump’s Saudi-friendly government. This was done using the desire of Special Adviser Jared Kushner, who attended the summit, to project himself as a peacemaker as well. With another lever, he positions himself as a leader that Biden cannot afford to alienate or ignore, especially by looking constructive.
“It’s an attempt to take a leadership role, to try to gain a diplomatic advantage with the incoming Biden government, and a realization perhaps that the last four years have made too much foreign policy adventure possible,” Karen Young , a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC
Trump was close to Saudi Arabia, undertook his first foreign trip as president there, drew a hard line against his arch-enemy Iran, and protected Prince Mohammed from consequences following the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi by the Washington Post in 2018 by Saudi agents in Istanbul.
Durable conflicts
However, it is not just Biden who is driving the new tone – the terrain on which Prince Mohammed walks has also shifted. His plan to diversify the economy and wean off oil is facing major setbacks, and the kingdom’s reputation has taken a dive into a series scandal. The coronavirus pandemic has increased the urgency of challenges at home.
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For much of last year, Prince Mohammed took a step back from the public sphere and rushed off the Red Sea coast in Neom, one of his distinctive futuristic mega-projects. It was Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan and King Salman – Prince Mohammed’s father – who addressed the country and warned citizens of difficult times.
At Tuesday’s summit, King Salman was absent and Prince Mohammed was the star. The environment reflects the prince’s ambitions and emphasizes his plan to turn Al Ula into a world tourism destination. After the meetings, he took Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad on a tour. They drove in a white Lexus with Prince Mohammed at the wheel.
The image would have been unthinkable a few years ago when the prince’s closest advisers regularly dismissed Qatar. Saudi Arabia and its allies have accused the wealthy Gulf state of interfering in their internal affairs, supporting extremism and using its influential media channels as propaganda weapons against neighbors, accusations that Doha denies.
Donald Trump, left, with Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud on the sidelines of the second day of the G20 summit at INTEX Osaka Exhibition Center in Osaka, Japan, in 2019.
Source: Anadolu Agency / Getty Images
Global influence
Regional dynamics have been key to restoring ties, including Saudi Arabia’s desire to focus on Iran, said Hesham Alghannam, a political scientist and senior research fellow at the Gulf Research Center. Biden said he would try to rejoin the nuclear deal with Iran that Trump abandoned, an outreach that Saudi Arabia was concerned about, which also provides an extra incentive to restore ties with Arab neighbors.
“Saudi Arabia wants to be the referee of the difference of opinion between Gulf states, instead of being part of these conflicts,” Alghannam said.
From the archive: A QuickTake on the Origins of the Saudi Qatar Rift
The production cut was another demonstration of the Kingom’s regional and global influence. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, an older half-brother of the crown prince, said it showed Saudi Arabiaa leading help the oil world and others suffering from lower oil prices, including Iraq.
But even this move has highlighted a change in Saudi Arabia’s oil policy under King Salman and Prince Mohammed. After decades of pride in raising oil above politics, the royal palace has become more radical and its political forces more politicized.
To that end, Prince Abdulaziz described the production cut as a ‘political, sovereign’ step rather than a ‘technical’ step. It will also be expensive. At current prices, it will cost the kingdom $ 3 billion a month in oil losses, according to Bloomberg News calculations, although the actual figure may eventually end. smaller.
But its global impact was immediate. Crude prices rose to a ten-month high above $ 50 a barrel. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia allows Russia to increase production, a first and less than a year after their price war. This is another sign that the kingdom is not looking for confrontation at the moment.
– With the help of Vivian Nereim, Farah Elbahrawy and Abeer Abu Omar