Workers unload cargo from a Hungarian Airbus 330 aircraft after transporting the first doses of the Chinese Sinopharm vaccine against the coronavirus (Covid-19) at Ferenc Liszt International Airport on 16 February 2021.
ZOLTAN MATHE | AFP | Getty Images
LONDON – International diplomacy is likely to determine who gets access to coronavirus vaccines in the coming months, analysts told CNBC. Countries like Russia and China are seen as using one of the world’s most popular products to promote their own interests abroad.
It is hoped that the introduction of Covid-19 vaccines could help end the pandemic. Although many countries have not yet started vaccination programs, even high-income countries face a shortage of supplies as manufacturers struggle to increase production.
Russia and China last year made a central principle of diplomatic relations to distribute face masks and protective equipment to countries hard hit. It is now seen that both countries are taking a transactional approach to vaccine delivery.
Agathe Demarais, global forecasting director at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC by telephone that Russia, China and, to a lesser extent, India were betting on providing Covid vaccines to emerging low-income countries to advance their interests.
“Russia and China have been doing this for a long time, especially in emerging countries because they feel that traditional Western powers have withdrawn from these countries,” Demarais said.
“While this is still the case in reality, we have seen China launch the Belt and Road Initiative, we have seen Russia do a number of things, especially in the Middle East, with nuclear power stations, and the vaccine diplomacy. is a new brick in the whole building of their effort to strengthen their global position. ‘
Vaccination timeline
With this strategy, Russia and China are likely to reaffirm a long-standing presence in countries around the world, Demarais said, pointing out that the fundamental importance of vaccines for populations will make it ‘super, difficult’ for countries to push diplomatic pressure in the future. resist. .
The problem for Moscow and Beijing, however, is that ‘there is a big, big chance’ that they are both going to hinder and surrender too much, she added.
The Russian Sputnik V vaccine and China’s Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccinations have already begun global deployment. In total, 26 countries, including Argentina, Hungary, Tunisia and Turkmenistan, have approved the Covid vaccine for Russia. China’s customer base includes Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates.
A health worker is getting the Sputnik V vaccine at Centenario Hospital in Rosario, Santa Fe province, as the vaccination campaign against the new coronavirus Covid-19 began on December 29, 2020 in Argentina.
STR | AFP | Getty Images
Analysts say Russia and China have usually signed supply agreements that strengthen existing political alliances, but production problems for vaccines manufactured in the West could be an incentive for some non-traditional allies to look to Moscow and Beijing.
Russia and China are currently unable to meet the demand for vaccine supply from their local markets and can still export to countries around the world. Production is the biggest obstacle to this challenge, while many high-income countries have pre-ordered more doses than they need.
We currently have no system at the international level, to make sure that you can match the effectiveness of the vaccine to the place where there is a variant circulating.
Suerie Moon
Co-Director of GHC at the Graduate Institute Geneva
A report published by the Economist Intelligence Unit last month predicts that the majority of the advanced population of advanced economies will be vaccinated by the middle of next year. By contrast, this timeline extends for many middle-income countries to early 2023 and even to 2024 for some low-income countries.
It highlights the global mismatch between supply and demand and the strong divide between high-income and low-income countries in terms of access to vaccines.
Last month, the top official of the World Health Organization warned that the world was on the verge of a “catastrophic moral failure” due to the inequality of Covid vaccine policy.
Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that on January 18 it was clear that, even though they speak the language of equitable access to vaccines, ‘some countries and companies continue to prioritize bilateral transactions, to drive COVAX, to raise prices and to try to jump forward from the rope. “
“It’s wrong,” he added.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), speaks to dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases during the 148th session of the Executive Council on the outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19). Geneva, Switzerland, January 21, 2021.
Christopher Swart | WIE | via Reuters
Tedros condemns what he described as a ‘first approach’ to high-income countries, saying it is self-defeating and endangers the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people. Almost all high-income countries have prioritized the distribution of vaccines among their own populations.
Asked if countries are likely to change their so-called my-first approach following the WHO warning about vaccination, Demarais replied: “No. It is not going to happen. I am following it very closely and it’s all very depressing. “
‘The big challenge’
COVAX is one of the three pillars of the so-called Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator, launched last April by the WHO, the European Commission and France. It focuses on the equitable access of Covid diagnosis, treatments and vaccinations to help less affluent countries.
Analysts have long been skeptical about how effectively COVAX can supply Covid vaccines to middle- and low-income countries around the world, despite calls by several heads of state for global solidarity at the start of the pandemic.
The international aid group Medecins Sans Frontieres described what we consider today in terms of global access to vaccines as ‘far from an image of fairness’.
“The big challenge, once you zoom out globally, is that every time any country enters into a bilateral agreement, it’s much harder to put vaccines in the multilateral pot by COVAX,” said Suerie Moon, co-director of Global Health. Center at the Graduate Institute Geneva, CNBC said by telephone.
In addition to this concern, Moon said: “We currently have no system at the international level, for example, to make sure that you can match the vaccine effectiveness with the place where a variant is in circulation.”
She cited South Africa as a striking example. Earlier this month, South Africa thwarted its introduction of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine after a study raised questions about its effectiveness against a highly contagious variant first discovered in the country.
“In a rational and ethical world, South Africa would suddenly have access to vaccines that are effective against their variant, and the AstraZeneca vaccines could be sent to another part of the world where the variant is not in circulation. This would be the rational “We have no way of doing that, but we just do not have arrangements for such transactions,” Moon said.
“Ideally, this is the kind of thing that happens when you have strong international cooperation, but I think it’s actually going to be a mess,” she continued.
‘In some countries vaccines will expire when they can be used elsewhere, we are going to have vaccines effective in one place, but it is not in the right place (and) we are going to have excess vaccines as a security. measure while people in another country have nothing. ‘