Oddsmakers have been considering for days what the line would be at an AFC championship game between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. On Sunday afternoon, after the game was introduced, the opening line ranged wildly, from Chiefs -4 to Bills -2.5, at sports books around the world.
This is what the damage to Patrick Mahomes did to the betting market, and this is just the beginning.
Late Sunday night, the line with the Chiefs settled as 2.5-point favorites, with some books at -3. It probably will not stay there.
Mahomes left the Chiefs’ 22-17 win over the Cleveland Browns in the second half with a concussion. His status for the AFC Championship game was underway on Monday. If he plays, the line will almost certainly grow. If he’s not on the road, Buffalo could become the favorite, and the Green Bay Packers could become the Super Bowl favorite.
“If Mahomes were to be excluded, the bills would be a decent favorite,” John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook in Westgate Las Vegas, said Sunday night, noting that some of his foreign producers had a line as high as Buffalo -7 projected as backup. Chad Henne starts for the Chiefs in place of Mahomes. “It sounds a bit extreme to me, but it gives you an idea of how much delivery it is from Mahomes to Henne, in terms of point distribution.”
Johnny Avello, sportsbook director of DraftKings, expected the Chiefs to remain the favorite to win the Super Bowl, but he knows the gap has narrowed significantly with Mahomes’ injury.
“They will still be the favorites, but it will be a bit sharpened,” Avello said.
On Sunday night, William Hill American sports books had the Chiefs at +200 to win the Super Bowl, followed by the Packers at +225, Bills +300 and Buccaneers +400. But a lot can change this week.
Meanwhile, here are the notable bets.
NFL
• On Sunday night, the Packers were a consensus of 4-point favorites over the Buccaneers in the NFC Championship Game. The SuperBook opened Green Bay at -4.5 and quickly took money on the underdog Buccaneers, which raised the number to -4.
• In the AFC Championship game, most of the early bets were on the accounts at the SuperBook. “Although the biggest bet was still up to $ 20,000 on Chiefs -3 (equal),” Murray said. “The public likes both of these teams, although the Chiefs are still letting the bettors down. They have not covered again today.”
• The Chiefs have not been able to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.
• Late money showed up at the Browns before kickoff Sunday. The line, which fluctuated between Kansas City -10 and -9.5 all week, dropped to -7.5 before kickoff. The SuperBook reported that he took very sharp money on Cleveland as the entire market moved in the direction of the underdog Browns.
“The difference between 7.5 and 9.5 is not that big,” said Avello of DrafKings. “I do not know why the thing dropped. I can not explain why they took nine, eight and a half and eight. ‘
At Circa Sports, a Las Vegas sports book known for professional betting, there is more betting on Kansas City, but more money is being bet on Cleveland.
“All the big bets we keep are on the Browns,” Matt Metcalf, sportsbook director at Circa Sports in Las Vegas, told ESPN in a text message before Sunday’s game began. ‘Someone just took [Cleveland plus] 8 for many a minute ago. ‘
• The Chiefs were 22-10 ahead with just over 11 minutes left when Mahomes was officially ruled out for the rest of the game. Kansas City was a big favorite at the time, -900 to win the game straight. After a Browns power play narrowed the lead to 22-17 and Mahomes was ruled out, the odds on the Chiefs shifted to -500.
• The most popular player game at the Browns-Chiefs game in the sports book Tipico of New Jersey, was the less than 260.5 on the passing site of Baker Mayfield, who was responsible for 50% of the book’s action on player props.
• The Buccaneers-Saints game Sunday was the game of the weekend for most sports books.
• A bettor with sportsbook PointsBet placed a bet of $ 5,400 per point on Bills -3.5 against the Ravens. In this example, the bet per point, commonly known as point betting, was based on the number of points with which the bills covered the spread. They covered the spread by 11.5 points, and the bettor earned a net $ 56,700.
• The Rams-Packers game on Saturday was hailed by some as a ‘Pros vs.. Joes’ match stamped. The underdog Rams previously attracted an interest from professional bettors at +7. The line dived to Green Bay -6.5 and stayed there most of the week, despite an illegal bet on the favorite Packers. At the launch of PointsBet, 82% of the bet and 89% of the money was played on GreenBet. The Packers won the victory 32-18 and covered.
NBA
Neat favorites in Eastern conference after Harden trade
Following the acquisition of James Harden, Brooklyn Nets moved in front of the Milwaukee Bucks and is now the favorite in the Eastern Conference. Some oddsmakers are still not sold in the NBA’s latest superteam.
The Nets’ title chances improved from 12-1 to 7-2 on the SuperBook last week. Jeff Sherman, who oversees the SuperBook’s NBA chance, began shortening Brooklyn’s title chances last Tuesday after Harden told reporters he did not think the situation in Houston would be rectified. Sherman first cut the Nets’ chance to 8-1, then to 6-1 before going 7-2 after the trade game.
Only the Los Angeles Lakers have a better title chance than the Nets, who drew big bets on the SuperBook in the preseason and more recently, including a $ 10,000 bet in December. The Bucks had the second-best chance in the Eastern Conference at 8-1, followed by the Boston Celtics, Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers at 20-1.
“I do not have as much separation between them and some of the other teams in the East, as the title chances indicate,” Sherman said. ‘If you look at 7-2 on the Nets and 8-1 on the Bucks, and the Heat, Celtics and Sixers at 20-1, I do not think on a match basis it’s as much of a difference as it is. based on the title chance. ‘
Sherman said his power ratings on the Nets are volatile for now as he waits to see Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and Harden develop chemistry.
“They can talk a good game all they want, but we don’t know how the chemistry is going to come out of this,” Sherman said. ‘There were all these rumors about Irving not being happy with the Nets behind the scenes. Will it make him unhappy? ‘
Three questions
… with Scott Butera, co-CEO of sportsbook platform Vigtory, who last week announced plans to be acquired by live TV streaming platform fuboTV. The acquisition deal is in the final stages, and when completed, fuboTV expects to launch a sports book before the end of the year.
Q: What is your vision on the product that comes from the fuboTV Vigtory deal?
A: I think it is very powerful to be able to watch sports live and bet and bet on sports. I also think it gives us a tremendous reach in terms of reaching customers and gaining customers. The product will announce us at the right time, but the idea is that you will have a simultaneous experience between consuming sports, watching sports and the chance to bet on sports and to make transactions. It can bet, it can be goods, get tickets. I think the whole idea is to create these globally entertaining experiences that are versatile. We find that there is a lot of synergy between the two.
Q: What other obstacles are there to launching such a service?
A: As for hurdles, we, like any other operator, will have a roll-out plan. We are knee deep in it. The correct legislation implemented in jurisdictions that have not yet been implemented. I think things will evolve over time. I think this combination [with fuboTV] helps us to get around a lot, and I think there are many different ways we can end up in markets right now that go beyond just traditional ways of being a sports book, whether through streaming services or other products we can introduce . does not necessarily have to have the same regulatory challenges as sports betting currently does. It actually helps us to get rid of a lot of it.
Q: Vigtory’s announced approach to sports betting was to offer a low-level sports betting option. Is that still the plan?
A: Our plan has always been to have a great product and a lot of value. We want excellent technology, excellent experiences, and we want good value. And value is not necessarily defined by price; it is defined by what you pay for, and that has always been our goal.