U.S. farmers will respond to high commodity prices by harvesting their largest soybean crop ever and a corn crop that could rise to the record set in 2016, the USDA predicted Friday.
The wheat and soybean crop of 2021 is being delivered to a hungry world recovered from the pandemic, achieving some of the highest prices in years.
At its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, the USDA projected a 15.15 billion bushel maize crop, which is in line with the 2016 record of 15.144 billion bushels, and a 4.525 billion bushel soybean crop, which is the 4.428 billion bushel record surpassed in 2018. The plantings of maize and soybeans are 182 million hectares, and this is the highest total ever for the two most planted crops in the country.
“The current prices for soybean futures contracts for wheat, supported by strong Chinese demand and the strictest stock-to-use ratio since 2013/14, are expected to increase soybean plantings to 90.0 million hectares, which is 6.9 million acres will be higher than a year ago, ‘the USDA said. “Higher maize prices are also expected to encourage planting, although it will increase with a lower area increase compared to soybeans, by 1 million hectares to 92 million.”
With the full gas demand for the crops at home and abroad, the record crops will be fully consumed by the time the crop is ready for harvest in 2022. Wheat exports were projected at 2.65 billion bushels and soybeans at an almost record 2.2 billion bushels. “Despite increasing global demand, US market share is likely to decline on limited export stocks.” The transfer of soybeans from 145 million bushels would be less than two weeks. The maize transfer of 1.552 billion bushels would be a stock of five and a half weeks.
The seasonally average prices are estimated at $ 4.20 a bushel for maize and $ 11.25 a bushel for soybeans. The maize price would be 10 ¢ lower than this marketing year and the second highest in eight years. The soybean price would be the highest since 2012/13.
The USDA said 5.2 billion acres of corn would be used to produce ethanol, which is 5% higher than this marketing year, based on expectations of greater gasoline consumption as the economy recovers from the pandemic. “We will continue to follow it closely,” said USDA economist Justin Choe.
USDA’s projections on large crops of maize and soybeans depend in part on the highest maize yield ever of 179.5 bushes per acre and the second highest soybean yield on a record 50.8 bushels per acre.
Wheat production is estimated at 1.827 billion bushels, almost the same as in 2020, from plantations of 45 million hectares, an increase of 651,000 hectares compared to last year. Wheat seedlings are under pressure due to the higher expected yields of wheat and soybeans in the northern plain.
Cotton production is projected at 17.5 million bales, compared to 14.95 million bales last year, with higher yields and stable planting. The rice crop of 202.9 million hundred weights would be 11% smaller than in 2020 due to proportionally smaller seedlings.
Sorghum plantings are expected to increase to 7.2 million hectares, an increase of 1.3 million hectares compared to last year, which yields a harvest of 441 million shrubs, compared to 373 million shrubs in 2020. The United States is the world’s largest sorghum producer and China is the largest importer. “Sorghum prices have skyrocketed … and most of them are going directly to China,” Choe said. “Almost all of this increase (in production) goes directly to exports.” The average seasonal price for sorghum is estimated at $ 4.70 per bushel, which is 10 ¢ less than the 2020 crop.