WASHINGTON – More than a century after the death of the Ottoman Empire of about 1.5 million Armenian citizens, President Biden is preparing to declare the atrocities a genocide, according to officials familiar with the internal debate. The action would indicate that the US commitment to human rights outweighs the risk of further weakening the US alliance with Turkey
It is expected that Mr. Biden announced the symbolic name on Saturday, the 106th anniversary of the beginning of what historians call a year-long and systematic death march that began the forerunners of modern Turkey during World War I. He would be the first sitting U.S. president to do so, although Ronald Reagan made a cursory reference to the Armenian genocide in a written statement on the Holocaust in 1981, and both the House and Senate approved measures in 2019 to recognition of making it a formal matter of U.S. foreign policy.
At least 29 other countries have taken similar steps – mostly in Europe and America, but also Russia and Syria, Turkey’s political opponents.
A U.S. official with knowledge of the administration’s discussions said Mr. Biden decided to issue the statement, and others in government and in foreign embassies said that was widely expected.
White House press secretary Jen Psaki declined to comment on Wednesday, noting that the government had “more to say” on the matter on Saturday.
Foreign Minister Ara Aivazian of Armenia said in an interview on Wednesday that “the recognition by the United States will be a kind of moral beacon for many countries.”
“This is not about Armenia and Turkey,” he said. Aivazian said. “This is about our obligation to acknowledge and condemn the genocide in the past, the present and the future.”
The designation and or mr. Praying it would reach out was seen as an early test of the government’s dealings with the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey.
The two men have had a somewhat protesting relationship in the past, in contrast to the generally hot treatment that Mr. Erdogan received from President Donald J. Trump, and the genocide declaration could cause a setback by Turkey that jeopardizes its cooperation in regional military conflicts or diplomatic efforts. Former US presidents have held back for the very reason of the statement, and Mr. Praying can still change plan.
While Turkey agrees that World War I fighting between Muslim Ottomans and Christian Armenians resulted in widespread deaths, its leaders resolutely rejected that the assassination campaign that began in 1915 amounted to genocide.
However, Turkish officials have slammed the genocide statement since Mr. Biden pledged to do so during his presidential campaign, and Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu warned earlier this week that it would put an end to the already strained relationship between the two allies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
“Judgments without legal binding have no advantage, but it will harm ties,” he said. Cavusoglu said in an interview with Turkish broadcaster Haberturk. “If the United States wants to weaken ties, it is up to them.”
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The legal definition of genocide was only adopted in 1946, and officials and experts said that the statement of Mr. Praying brings no tangible fines other than humiliating Turkey and tainting its history with an inevitable comparison to the Holocaust.
“We stand firm against attempts to pretend that this deliberate, organized attempt to destroy the Armenian people was anything but a genocide,” a dual group of 38 senators said in a letter to Mr. Biden wrote and asked him to make the statement. . ‘You have correctly said that US diplomacy and foreign policy must be rooted in our values, including respect for universal rights. These values require us to acknowledge the truth and do what we can to prevent future genocides and other crimes against humanity. ”
Mr. Biden wants to show that his commitment to human rights – a pillar of the government’s foreign policy – is worth any setback.
The genocide statement indicates that the United States is “prepared to take geostrategic hits for our values”, said James F. Jeffrey, a former ambassador to Turkey who served in senior national security posts for the three presidents immediately before Mr. Biden, said.
Mr. Jeffrey, now chairman of the Middle East at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington, said there was little risk that Turkey would turn to Russia, Iran or other US opponents to replace its alliances with the West.
But, he said, Mr. Erdogan is easily trying to thwart or delay specific policies to aggravate Biden’s government, especially in Syria, where Turkey’s dormant ceasefire with Russia has allowed the already narrowed humanitarian access, and into the Black Sea. where American warships must first pass through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles on support missions to Ukraine.
“It may be more difficult to get Erdogan to agree on specific policies,” he said. Jeffrey said.
He also predicted that Turkey could force careful reviews to delay non-NATO operations at Incirlik Air Base, a road station for US troops and equipment in the region. Or, did Mr. Jeffrey said Turkey could do something to provoke new sanctions or reinstate those suspended, such as taking military action against Kurdish fighters linked to US forces against the Islamic State in northeastern Syria.
Pentagon officials also noted the value of the Turkish forces remaining in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of US and other coalition troops on September 11; Kabul and Ankara have a long relationship that allows some troops to stay in Afghanistan after leaving NATO countries.
Tensions between Turkey and the United States flared up in December when the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Ankara for its purchase and then tested a Russian missile defense system that, according to Western officials, could expose NATO’s security networks to Moscow. The sanctions were imposed in the last month of Mr. Trump’s presidency, three years after Turkey bought the missile system, and only after Congress required it as part of a bill on military spending.
Mr. Trump pointed to helping Armenia last fall during his war against Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, noting the politically influential Armenian diaspora in the United States. Its administration took a more proportionate approach to trying to market a peace treaty alongside Russia and France, and eventually Armenia surrendered the disputed territory in the conflict with Turkey – backed by Azerbaijan.
In the Wednesday interview, Mr. Foreign Minister Aivazian cited Turkey’s military role in the Nagorno – Karabakh war as an example of what he described as a source of growing instability in the region and the eastern Mediterranean.
He said that the designation of the genocide would serve as a reminder to the rest of the world if malicious values were not acted upon.
“I believe that bringing dangerous states into the international order will make our world much safer,” he said. Aivazian said. “And we will witness fewer tragedies, fewer human losses, once the United States reaffirms its moral leadership in this turbulent time.”