The grim COVID-19 pandemic is set to end in 2020 as a notorious year in the history of human disease.
But this dark chapter has yielded some surprises for which we can also be grateful. In a new study, researchers found that a predicted outbreak of a mysterious crippling disease in 2020 could not materialize according to schedule – and in a strange way, we actually have the coronavirus to thank for it.
The condition in question is called acute flaccid myelitis (AFM). This polio-like neurological disease mainly affects children, causing muscle weakness, and in some cases permanent paralysis and even death.
For decades, cases of AFM have been very rare, but in recent years, major outbreaks have occurred in the U.S. and elsewhere, apparently occurring every two years.
A review of previous research has linked AFM to a rare virus called enterovirus D68 (EV-D68), and although it is not yet known how the virus manifests the symptoms of AFM disease, the outbreaks of the pair have led to to the investigators’ minds. almost certainly related.
In the new investigation, a team led by Princeton University’s first author and infectious disease modeler Sang Woo Park detected patterns of cases of EV-D68 between 2014 and 2019, with the virus having significant surges in equal years. has – 2014, 2016, and 2018 – which can presumably be attributed to climate-based factors.
The data suggested is that 2020 would be a new hit.
“We predicted that a major EV-D68 outbreak, and therefore an AFM outbreak, would still be possible under normal epidemiological conditions by 2020,” the researchers explained in their study.
Of course, the epidemiological conditions of 2020 were anything but normal, as the world took the trouble to testify, and the expected combination of EV-D68 and AFM never came.
In the US – a country with significantly more cases of COVID-19 than any other – it appears that the combined effects of physical distancing, quarantine and isolation policies and economic and civil closures are not just reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2, but EV-D68 too.
“Our preliminary analysis indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic response would likely have affected the dynamics of an EV-D68 outbreak in 2020,” the authors write.
According to the researchers, there were 153 cases of AFM in 2016 and 238 cases in 2018, but only 31 cases in 2020.
In light of everything the US has been through lately, these are some numbers to feel good about.
However, there is no time for complacency – especially since the unplanned gap year of EV-D68 may leave a greater void than usual in viral immunity at the population level.
“Due to the low number [predicted] “EV-D68 cases in 2019, we would expect the number of susceptible individuals to increase, which increases the likelihood that a major outbreak will occur,” the team said.
“If social distance prevents the outbreak from occurring, the susceptible pool could increase even further.”
The findings are presented in Science Translational Medicine.