Ontario data show that the decline in the coronavirus case has flattened out, and the delayed procedures are a major concern

The latest modeling data from the Government of Ontario indicate that progress in reducing coronavirus cases has stalled and that delayed medical procedures have a major impact on the healthcare system.

“Decline in community cases and positive testing has leveled off. Cases are increasing in most public health units as our mobility increases, ”said Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of the COVID-19 Science Advisory Table in Ontario, told reporters Thursday afternoon.

“The varieties of concern continue to spread across Ontario and our ability to control the rate of spread will determine whether we return to normal, or whether we face a third wave of infection.”

Officials have said once again that the coming weeks will be ‘critical’ in determining what restrictions there will be for the summer, noting that masking and distance restrictions are needed to control the spread of more infectious variants of COVID-19.

“We know exactly what to do,” he said.

“Although it is difficult, and I know everyone is at their limits, just a little more discipline with masking and distancing will help reduce matters.”

According to projections, COVID-19 rates could grow to 8,000 new cases per day over the next two to three weeks, depending on the distribution of the variants.

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If public health measures are followed and restrictions are imposed to contain sudden peaks, the projections may indicate that the rate can be kept to just under 2,000 cases per day.

“There is a lot of uncertainty right now and with it a lot of risks and a lot of danger,” Brown said.

If allowed to raise the issue again, he warned that there was a danger that Ontario’s hospital system would be overwhelmed.

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Even under an optimistic scenario, which sees a ‘small’ capacity increase, Brown said the province could still see 400 patients a week using intensive care beds.

“It’s important to note that this is not (just) a small increase,” he said.

“It’s an increase over and above an already tense system that is creating a challenge for access to care.”

The COVID-19 Scientific Advice Table has sounded the alarm for delayed care and the miss of investigations into other chronic diseases.

‘There will be a significant and sustained increase in the need for care in all sectors. “Our actions now will determine our ability to access care later,” Brown said.

The presentation emphasizes, for example, that an earlier “significant” decrease in cancer screening tests would lead to ‘long-term consequences for cancer outcomes’.

If we look at the surgical backlog of the province, the table reported that on March 15, 2020, there were no surgical cases. The total rose to about 75,000 cases in May, which is when the restart program began. In February, there were 227,410 cumulative surgical cases.

However, there was encouraging news in the province’s data.

Brown said COVID-19 vaccinations in long-term care facilities continue to bear fruit as the number of residents and staffing matters decreases. He also said deaths have dropped with the death of one resident reported in almost a week.

– With files from The Canadian Press

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