VATICAN CITY (AP) – Infectious disease experts are expressing concern over Pope Francis’ upcoming trip to Iraq, given a sharp increase in coronavirus infections there, a fragile healthcare system and the inevitable likelihood that Iraqis will meet him.
No one wants to tell Francis that he should turn it off, and the Iraqi government has every interest in demonstrating its relative stability by welcoming the first pope into the birthplace of Abraham. The March 5-8 trip is expected to give a much-needed spiritual boost to Iraq’s beleagured Christians as they advance Vatican’s bridge-building efforts with the Muslim world.
But from a purely epidemiological point of view, as well as the message about public health that it sends, a papal trip to Iraq amid a global pandemic is not advisable, health experts say.
Their concerns were reinforced with the news Sunday that the Vatican ambassador to Iraq, the key person for the trip, who would have accompanied Francis after all his appointments, tested positive for COVID-19 and isolated himself.
The embassy said in an email to The Associated Press that the symptoms of Archbishop Mitja Leskovar are mild and that he is continuing preparations for Francis’ visit.
Outside of his case, experts note that wars, economic crises and an exodus of Iraqi professionals have devastated the country’s hospital system, while studies show that most of Iraq’s new COVID-19 infections are the highly contagious variant that is the first once identified in Britain.
“I think it’s simply not a good idea,” said Dr. Navid Madani, virologist and founding director of the Center for Scientific Health Education in the Middle East and North Africa, told the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute of Harvard Medical School.
The Iranian-born Madani co-authored an article in The Lancet last year about the region’s unequal response to COVID-19, noting that Iraq, Syria and Yemen were ill-suited to deal with it. still struggling with extremist insurgency and has 40 million. people in need of humanitarian assistance.
In a telephone interview, Madani said that the people of the Middle East are known for their hospitality, and warns that the enthusiasm among Iraqis to welcome a peacemaker like Francis into a neglected, war-torn world could lead to unintentional violations of virus control measures. . .
“This could potentially lead to unsafe or widespread risks,” she said.
Dr. Bharat Pankhania, an expert in the control of infectious diseases at the University of Exeter College of Medicine, agrees.
“It’s a perfect storm to generate a lot of issues that you will not be able to handle,” he said.
Two Iraqi government officials said the organizers promised to apply mask mandates, social distance and crowd limits, as well as the possibility of increased test venues.
The health care protocols are “critical but manageable,” one government official told the Associated Press, saying on condition of anonymity.
And the Vatican took its own precaution, with the 84-year-old pope, his entourage of the 20-member Vatican and the more than 70 journalists on the papal plane all vaccinated.
But the Iraqis who gather in the north, center and south of the country to attend Francis’ indoor and outdoor masses, hear his speeches and attend his prayer meetings are not vaccinated.
And that, according to scientists, is the problem.
“We are in the midst of a global pandemic. And it is important to get the right messages out, ”said Pankhania. “The right messages are: the less interaction with fellow human beings, the better.”
He questions the optics of the Vatican delegation being vaccinated while the Iraqis are not, noting that Iraqis would only take such risks to go to the events because the pope was there.
In words addressed to Vatican officials and the media, he said: ‘You are all protected from serious diseases. So if you get infected, you are not going to die. But the people you come to visit can become infected and die. ‘
‘Is it wise to just show up in these circumstances? And because you show up, do people show up to see you and get infected? he asks.
The World Health Organization was diplomatic when asked about the wisdom of a papal trip to Iraq, saying countries should evaluate the risk of an event against the infection situation, and then decide whether to postpone it.
“It’s about managing the risk,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s technical leader at COVID-19. “It’s about looking at the epidemiological situation in the country and then making sure that if the event can take place as safely as possible.”
Francis said he plans to leave, even though most Iraqis have to watch him on television to prevent infection. The important thing, he told Catholic News Service, is “they will see that the pope is in their country.”
Francis has regularly called for a fair distribution of vaccines and respect for government health measures, although he tends not to wear face masks. For months, Francis did not even have a social audience in the Vatican to limit the chance of infection.
Dr Michael Head, senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton’s Faculty of Medicine, said the number of new daily cases in Iraq is currently “significantly increasing”, with the Ministry of Health reporting around 4,000 a day, near the peak of its first wave in September.
Head said that for every trip to Iraq, infection control practices should be in place, including wearing a mask, hand washing, social distance and good ventilation in indoor spaces.
“Hopefully we will see proactive approaches to infection control take place during the pope’s visit to Baghdad,” he said.
The Iraqi government imposed an amended lock-up and curfew in mid-February amid a new boom in business, which closed schools and mosques and left restaurants and cafes open just for pick-up. But the government has decided against a full-scale strike because of the difficulty in enforcing it and the financial impact on Iraq’s battered economy, Iraqi officials told the Associated Press.
Many Iraqis remain limp with masks and some doubt the severity of the virus.
Madani, the Harologue virologist, called on travel organizers to allow science and data to guide their decision-making.
A decision to reschedule or postpone the papal voyage, or move it to a virtual format, would be ‘very influential from the point of view of a global leadership’, because ‘it would give preference to security’ of the Iraqi public ‘, she said.
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Kullab reported from Baghdad. Jamey Keaten in Geneva contributed.
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