LONDON (Reuters) – A third pandemic shutdown appears to have little effect on COVID-19 in England, researchers warned on Thursday, with the incidence of the disease ‘very high’ and ‘no evidence of deterioration’ in the first ten days of renewed restrictions.
Until the rate of COVID-19 is significantly reduced, health services will “remain under extreme pressure” and the number of deaths will rise rapidly, said researchers who led Imperial College London’s REACT-1 prevalence study.
“The number of COVID-19 patients (in hospital) is currently very high, and we can not expect it to decline unless we can reach lower levels of prevalence,” said Steven Riley, a professor of infectious disease dynamics. . which led to the work.
“The fact that (appearance) does not decrease can have potentially serious consequences”
Prime Minister Boris Johnson put England in a third national exclusion on 5 January by closing pubs, restaurants and most schools and allowing only essential shops.
Ministers have called on people to stay home as much as possible to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed and to give authorities time to introduce COVID-19 vaccines to the elderly and those at greatest risk.
But with the presentation of its latest data – from January 6 to 15 – Riley said the prevalence was at 1.58%, the highest the REACT-1 study has recorded since it began in May 2020. This is an increase of more than 50% since the last reading in mid-December.
Riley also warned to establish immediate hope for COVID-19 shots.
“The vaccine is going to have a very limited impact on appearance in the short term,” he told reporters.
Paul Elliott, an expert in epidemiology and medical health and director of the REACT program, said the stubborn levels of COVID-19 infection were due in part to a more transmissible variant of the virus that developed late last year. It.
“We really need to double the social health measures – wear face masks, keep your distance and wash your hands,” Elliott said. “There will be continued pressure until we can reduce the incidence.”
The British government on Wednesday reported a new daily record rise in deaths with 1820 people dying within 28 days after a positive COVID-19 test. However, new infections – at 38,905 – were lower than a recent high of 68,053 on 8 January.
The health ministry said the full impact of the exclusion would not yet be reflected in the prevalence numbers, but added that the survey stressed the importance of everyone staying home and following the restrictions.
Reporting by Kate Kelland. Additional reporting by Alistair Smout. Edited by Marl Potter