JERUSALEM (AP) – Israelis began voting on Tuesday in the country’s fourth parliamentary election in two years – a highly charged referendum on the divisive rule of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Opinion polls predict a tough race between those who support Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, and those who want ‘everyone but Bibi’, as he is widely known.
“This is the moment of truth for the State of Israel,” Netanyahu’s rival Yair Lapid said as he voted in Tel Aviv.
One truth: Israelites are tired of the do-overs. The vote, like Israel’s leading vaccination campaign, received good reviews for organizations – if only because everyone involved had a lot of exercise, with the potential for even more, if the results did not yield a ruling majority. The results may not be known for weeks.
“It would be better if we did not have to vote twice in two years,” Jerusalem resident Bruse Rosen said after voting. “It’s a little tiring.”
Candidates have made their final push in the last few days with a series of TV interviews and public appearances at shopping malls and outdoor markets. The campaigns increasingly reached people’s personal space with a constant deluge of out-and-out voice texts that made cell phones buzzing at all times.
Netanyahu is more at stake than ideology. He is portrayed as a global statesman who is unique in leading the country through its many security and diplomatic challenges. He made Israel’s successful coronavirus vaccination campaign the focus of its re-election campaign, pointing to diplomatic agreements with four Arab states last year.
The reality is more nuanced. About 80% of the country’s 9.3 million people are vaccinated and Israel reopens, but more than 6,000 have died from COVID-19. Israel has come under international criticism for failing to send significant amounts of vaccinations to Palestinians quickly to fight the virus’ rise in the West Bank and Gaza.
And one of the four Arab countries, the United Arab Emirates, recently poured cold water on the relationship with Israel because its leaders did not want Netanyahu to pull them to the polls. The new administration of President Joe Biden also entertained Netanyahu coolly.
Opponents accuse Netanyahu of ruining the management of the coronavirus pandemic in the past year. They say he has failed to impose lock-in restrictions on his ultra-Orthodox political allies, spreading the virus, and pointing to the still dire state of the economy and its double-digit unemployment rate. They also say Netanyahu is unfit to rule at a time when he is facing several corruption charges, a case he dismisses as a witch hunt.
Up to 15% of voters are expected to vote outside their home districts, a number of absent votes greater than usual to accommodate those with coronavirus or in quarantine. The government is sending out special polling stations, including bringing polling stations to patients’ beds to provide ways to vote safely.
The votes are counted separately in Jerusalem, which means that final results may not be known for days. Given the tough race, the large number of undecided voters and a number of small parties struggling to exceed the 3.25% threshold for entry into parliament, it can be difficult to predict the outcome before the final count is completed.
Israelis vote for parties, not individual candidates. No single list of candidates from the parties could form a ruling majority in Israel’s 72-year history.
Netanyahu’s Likud party and those led by its opponents will look to smaller, allied parties as potential coalition partners. The party that can form a majority coalition gets the next government – a process that is expected to take weeks.
Tuesday’s election was caused by the disintegration of an emergency government formed in May last year between Netanyahu and his main rival to manage the coronavirus pandemic. The alliance has been plagued by infighting, and elections have been caused by the government’s failure to agree on a budget in December.
Netanyahu hopes to form a government with his traditional religious and hard-line nationalist allies. It includes some ultra-Orthodox parties and a small religious party that openly includes racist and homophobic candidates.
Netanyahu’s rivals have accused him of causing paralysis over the past two years in hopes of forming a more favorable government that would give him immunity or protect him from persecution.
His challengers include Yair Lapid, Israel’s opposition leader whose Yesh Atid party emerged as Netanyahu’s main alternative.
Netanyahu also faces challenges from a number of allies who have formed their own parties after bitter breaks with the prime minister.
These include former protégé Gideon Saar, who broke away from Likud to form ‘New Hope’. He says the party is a nationalist alternative that is charged with corruption charges and which he says is a personality cult that keeps Likud in power.
Yamina party leader Naftali Bennett, another former Netanyahu assistant, could appear as the kingmaker. A hardline nationalist politician who was previously Netanyahu’s minister of education and defense, Bennett did not rule out wanting a coalition with the fighting prime minister, which would allow him to court both parties in future coalition talks.
The personality politics so far surpassed the race that the Palestinians, after years of frozen peace talks, were almost out of the question.
Analysts expect voter fatigue to contribute to a lower turnout, which was 71% in the most recent election a year ago.
Netanyahu’s religious and nationalist allies tend to be highly motivated voters. By contrast, Arab voters, disappointed with the disintegration of the umbrella party “Joint List”, are expected to stay home in larger numbers this time. Voters in the more liberal and secular areas around Tel Aviv also tend to have lower turnout.
Netanyahu can benefit if these trends materialize. But unlike last year’s election, the prime minister is without one important ally: former President Donald Trump, whose support he has used in previous elections with massive billboards on highways and heights they have shown together.
In contrast, Netanyahu barely mentioned Biden. The new US president only called the prime minister after reaching out to leaders from several other countries, and Israel’s supporters began to complain that the delay was beating a lot. The two men maintain that their alliance now remains.
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