For the fourth time in two years, Israel is on an election basis, with angry voters surrounding themselves for a contest shaped like another polarizing referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu, the country who is the longest-serving leader and its only sitting prime minister ever to face criminal charges. .
Experts already describe the election in March as a vote with ‘Only Bibi vs. Just Not Bibi ‘, referring to Netanyahu’s nickname. Netanyahu, like President Trump, whom he enthusiastically supports, inspires fierce devotion among his followers and hatred among his opponents.
But whether another visit to the ballot box in March will bring greater stability to the country, or a frustrating repeat of the political stalemate remains to be seen.
“Nobody promises that there will not be a fifth election,” political analyst Afif Abu Much warned.
Known as ‘the wizard’ for his apparent ability to snatch unlikely victories, Netanyahu is embarking on a campaign that faces obstacles that will challenge even his formidable political survival skills.
Israel’s economy was hit hard by the COVID – 19 pandemic, with the country entering its third national exclusion under Netanyahu’s supervision on Sunday amid a new surge in infections. His unprecedented trial on corruption charges, which began in May, is expected to enter a more sensational phase in February.
And he is now facing competition from a former ally, Gideon Saar, who resigned from Netanyahu’s Likud party earlier this month to form a new political party, New Hope, aimed at conserving voters who political melodrama surrounding Netanyahu fatigue, to sift. Another rival, Naftali Bennett, a former defense minister who leads the right-wing Yamina party, also gained traction.
Netanyahu’s fifth term lasted only seven months, with the new election automatically caused by the law after the government did not present a budget for 2020 at midnight on Tuesday night. Lawmakers rejected Netanyahu’s plea to extend the budget deadline by a week, leading to the collapse of the coalition government.
“This time, for the first time, Netanyahu did not declare elections,” Abu Much said. He writes political commentary for Yediot Ahronot, a popular tabloid newspaper, and the website Al-Monitor. “He was dragged to this election against his will.”
But in a quick poll, nearly half of Israelis blame Netanyahu for forcing them to run in another election, with about 18% of respondents holding Benny Gantz, Netanyahu’s centrist coalition partner.
The alliance of the two men in government was an awkward and troublesome one, which took place after an election in March, and neither of the two gave a workable parliamentary majority without the other. That election was Israel’s third in a year.
At the moment, it seems that voters are ready to punish both Netanyahu and Gantz, although that is likely to change a lot now and on Election Day on March 23.
Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party currently holds 32 of 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. If the quick polls take place after the collapse of the government, the party would win less than 30 in March.
The prospects are even worse for Gantz, a political neophyte who fought as an anti-Netanyahu champion of a clean government during 2019 and 2020 before tipping over in April to join forces with the man he is trying to put out. Gantz is now on the road to political oblivion, with polls showing his Blue and White party is down to about five Knesset seats.
In his usual style, Netanyahu projects confidence. He attributed the failure of the ruling coalition to Gantz’s dependence on “a dictatorship of left-wing bureaucrats” and predicted in a Trump-like touch: “We will win big!”
Many Israelis believe Netanyahu’s overriding goal is to form a parliamentary majority that he hopes will freeze, or even destroy, criminal proceedings against him – a prospect impossible for most legal experts.
Netanyahu failed in January, weeks after Atty, in his attempt to gain parliamentary immunity from prosecution. Gen. Avichai Mandelblit charged him with charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. The opening of his trial in May was a media spectacle, with Netanyahu declaring himself on the steps of the court as the victim of a coup attempt by deep-state officials and ‘the left-wing media’.
The evidentiary phase of the trial – with several Netanyahu’s former associates expected to testify against him – will begin in February, while the election campaign is in full swing.
“If we put aside all the political noise, the reason we are heading for an election is that Netanyahu has refused to accept a budget as required by law and to respect political agreements. [that] he can stay in power for the duration of his trial, “said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a non-partisan think tank. “Israel’s ongoing political crisis will continue as long as Netanyahu remains prime minister and a government cannot be formed without him.”
Because of all the problems plaguing him, 39% of Israelis voted Netanyahu the best choice for prime minister in a survey by a local TV network last week.
But in a sign of trouble for the prime minister, almost the same percentage – 36% – elected Likud breakaway politician Saar, a former interior and education minister. Three other coalition members resigned to join Saar, including Zeev Elkin, a former Netanyahu protégé who accused his former mentor of “holding Israel hostage” against his legal problems.
On top of that, Netanyahu is going to lose another big ally: Trump. With the crippled president set to vacate the White House on January 20, Netanyahu will no longer be able to demonstrate a close continuing relationship with Trump as a selling point.
Trump regularly gave political gifts to Netanyahu that were at the right time to give him a campaign, never more dramatic than in March 2019, when Washington recognized Israeli sovereignty over the long-disputed Golan Heights days before a general election. In other victories for Netanyahu, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Iran deal, moved the U.S. embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and facilitated the normalization of ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.
What relationship Netanyahu will establish with President-elect Joe Biden remains to be seen.
The Israeli leader reminded Biden in a tweet that the two “have had a long and warm personal relationship for almost 40 years”, but Netanyahu avoided Biden for weeks as “president” and still keeps a picture of himself with Trump on his Twitter profile.
Political analyst Tal Schneider does not expect Netanyahu to stop talking about his bond with Trump, even after the latter leaves the White House.
“He will absolutely continue to use his commitment to Trump as a campaign argument,” she said, “and he will say that it was his personal commitments around the world that ensured the normalization agreements.”
For now, Israelites are dealing with issues that are closer to home, as they stem from the economic consequences of a series of endless coronavirus shutdowns. Netanyahu hopes a mass vaccination campaign – he was the first Israeli to be vaccinated on live television – would help stem the pandemic.
Netanyahu and Gantz will now serve as co-prime ministers until the March election. If the vote again causes a stalemate, the battle between coalitions could mean that the unfortunate couple will rule Israel for months to come.
“We may be stuck in the same place,” Abu Much said.
“Paralysis” is how Plesner describes it – and it is a situation that is likely to continue, he said, until Israeli voters, and not their political politicians, make a definite choice.