A majority of Europeans believe America’s political system is broken, that China will be the leading power in the world within a decade and that Joe Biden will not be able to stem his country’s decline on the world stage. according to a report.
While many welcomed Biden’s victory in the US election in November, more Europeans believe that the US cannot be trusted after four years of Donald Trump, according to the study by the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“Europeans like Biden, but they do not think America will return as a world leader,” said tank director Mark Leonard. “When George W. Bush was president, they were divided on how America should use its power. When Biden entered the White House, they were divided over whether America had power at all. ”
The survey of 15,000 people in 11 European countries, conducted late last year, found that the shift in European sentiment towards the US in the aftermath of the Trump presidency led to a corresponding reluctance to support Washington in possible international disputes.
For example, at least half of respondents in all 11 countries surveyed said their government should remain neutral in any US-China conflict, while no more than 40% in any country say they would support Washington against Russia. not.
“It is clear that the tumultuous Trump presidency has left an indelible mark on Europe’s attitude towards the US,” said Ivan Krastev, chairman of the Center for Liberal Strategies, an NGO in Sofia, and an ECFR board member. said. ‘The majority of Europeans are now skeptical about the US’s ability to shape the world. This makes many, rightly or wrongly, want to opt for a more independent role for the EU in the world. ‘
In their report, Leonard and Krastev note that although more than 60% of respondents believed that the US was ‘broken’, most rated the EU and the country’s systems much more positively – an opportunity, they claim, to to use collective power. of the bloc to the benefit and protection of its citizens.
The survey found that 51% of respondents disagree with the statement that the US is likely to resolve its internal divisions among Biden and seek to address international issues such as climate change, Middle East peace, relations with China or European security. to speak. .
Amid a widespread sense of growing Chinese supremacy, 79% of respondents in Spain, 72% in Portugal, 72% in Italy and 63% in France said they think China will be the US within the next decade as the world catch up with leading superpower.
Just over 32% of all respondents – and a surprising 53% of respondents in Germany – felt that Americans could not be trusted after voting for Trump. Only in Hungary and Poland did significantly more people disagree with the view, than they agreed.
Only 10% of respondents considered the US to be a “reliable” security partner that would always protect Europe, while at least 60% in each country surveyed said they doubted their country in the event of a crisis. US support can count.
According to the authors, the geopolitical consequences of this shift are significant: two thirds of respondents said it was now important for Europe to look after its own defenses, including 72% in Portugal, 71% in Sweden, 70% in France and 69% % in Poland.
At least half of the respondents in each country surveyed said they preferred their government to be neutral in a US-China conflict. In the 11 states surveyed, only 23% of respondents thought their country should choose Washington’s side over Russia, while 59% preferred to remain neutral.
Between 38% and 48% of respondents in seven countries thought that the EU should take a stricter international stance on issues such as trade, taxation and regulation, while most countries consider Germany to be a more important country now. to have relationship with ”. the USA.
The survey also revealed that in nine of the 11 countries – Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden – where the same demand was asked in previous years, the average proportion of people who the EU’s political system worked very or fairly well, rising from 46% to 48%.
It was found that people who believed that their own national political system was working, which was more often the case in northern than southern Europe, were more likely to say that the EU was a success.
The report identified four ‘tribes’ that have come a long way in grouping respondents’ positions, depending on whether they believe the EU, US or China are rising or falling. The largest tribe, “In Europe we trust”, made up 35% of respondents, while only 9% to “Trust in America”.