“The forecast is that the end of March, beginning of April,” said dr. Anthony Fauci, the more contagious British variant of Covid-19, “became more dominant than the wild type.
“The fact is that when you have a virus that has the ability to transmit more effectively than the wild type in the community, sooner or later through purely viral dynamics itself, it will become more prevalent than the wild type,” the country’s leading expert on infectious diseases said in an information session with other health officials on Friday.
“This is a wake-up call for all of us,” Fauci warned.
“We will continue to see the evolution of mutants. This therefore means that we, as the government, the companies, all of us who participate in this, must be ready to simply adapt to make versions of the vaccine that are specifically targeted at the mutation that is actually traveling. at any given time, ”Fauci said.
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Two weeks ago, the Los Angeles Department of Public Health announced that the much-discussed British variant of Covid-19, known as B.1.1.7, had been identified in the region. It is estimated that B.1.1.7 is up to 50% more transmissible than the more widespread form of the virus. It is thought that the number of LA residents infected with the British variant is still small, but because the number of daily analyzes for new variants is also small, it is very difficult to know how common it is. This is a problem.
Then, last week, the California Department of Public Health revealed that another lesser-known tribe had also spread throughout the state.
It is suspected that the variant called CAL.20C originated in the state in July, but only began to spread significantly in November.
According to the New York Times, CAL.20C was found in more than half of California test samples genomically analyzed in mid-January. It should be noted that the number of samples analyzed is much smaller than the total number of daily Covid-19 tests in the state. Therein lies another problem.
Since California spends billions of dollars to fight the virus and rightly spends much of it on vaccine distribution, it spends precious little to identify new variants.
At the beginning of January, the state conducted more than 30 million Covid-19 tests. According to the San Jose Mercury News, of these ten million, only about 7,000 genomics have been analyzed. It must be said that such analyzes have left the country as a whole behind. But California – and specifically Los Angeles – is the global epicenter of the pandemic. The need here is sharper.
Eric Vail, director of molecular pathology at Cedars-Sinai, told the Times that CAL.20C may have played a role in the increase in cases that overwhelmed Southern California’s hospitals earlier this month. “I’m pretty confident that it’s a more contagious strain of the virus,” said Dr. Vail said.
But Los Angeles County only analyzes a few dozen test samples genomically each day, so it’s hard to know. That is an average of 81,000 tests per day. (Health officials say they are recording the most suspicious samples for genomic examination.)
At Deadline’s request about the difference on Friday, dr. Paul Simon, chief scientist at LA County, admits: ‘We do not really have a sense of appearance [of new strains], but we do not think it’s high. As we expand, we hope we have a better idea. I think we do everything to test as much as possible, but there is no new addition of resources. ”
According to Mercury News:
Sequencing is expensive. It requires manpower. It takes time. And it diverts attention from more urgent needs in public health.
Unlike the United Kingdom, whose national strategy of so-called ‘genomic surveillance’ is run by a handful of large laboratories, US efforts fall on the tired shoulders of many state and local health departments, already highlighted by the pandemic. . There is no federal funding for a coordinated and real-time effort. And because our healthcare system is fragmented, there is no single pipeline that will yield all positive samples for sequencing.
To be honest, LA mayor Eric Garcetti and California Gov. Gavin Newsom have repeatedly said they need more help from the federal government, and both are hopeful that it will come from the Biden administration.
Meanwhile, the pandemic continues. The numbers in Los Angeles and California have dropped significantly from their earlier peak in January, but the death toll is still high. In the past three days alone, California has recorded more than 2,000 virus-related deaths.
“The [variant] “What is worrying and what can be really problematic is the mutant that is currently prevalent in South Africa,” Fauci said on Thursday. “We are already planning and implementing a modified version of the vaccine, which could eventually target specifically the South African isolate, which is the most problematic of all,” he said.
The South African variant, called B.1.351, originated in early October. B.1.351 shares some mutations with B.1.1.7. Cases caused by this variant were reported for the first time in the US on Thursday.
The CDC reports that the South African and another Brazilian variant ‘seems to be spreading easier and faster than other variants. It may also be less vulnerable to the effects of antibody products or antibody-rich blood from Covid-19 survivors, both of which help fight the virus. The Washington Post reported Friday that B.1.351 is also less affected by the one-shot vaccine developed by Johnson & Johnson.
Fauci said the vaccination of “as many people as we can, as fast as we can” is the best defense against new variants.
“The virus will continue to mutate and will mutate for its own selective benefit,” he said. If Covid-19 is common in a community, it’s only a matter of time before the virus mutates, as there is ample opportunity to adapt.
‘The fundamental principle of getting people vaccinated as quickly and as efficiently as possible is always the best way to prevent the further evolution of any mutant. Because if you do, you prevent replication, and replication is essential for mutation. ”