Israelis are going to the polls next Tuesday for the fourth time in two years, with Netanyahu leading an aggressive campaign against a shattered opposition.
Why it matters: Netanyahu’s narrow path to a 61-seat majority would require him to form an ultra-right-wing government, depending on the votes of Jewish rulers and members of the Knesset against LGBT and pro-annexation. With a majority, Netanyahu can pass a law or take other steps to postpone or end his corruption trial.
- He denies this is his goal, but prospective members of his coalition have announced they will support it.
The state of affairs: Current polls show Netanyahu’s bloc is at 58 seats, but things could easily move in his direction on election day.
- Israel’s election threshold of 3.25% means that several small parties will win about four seats or be left out altogether.
- The fatigue of the voters, especially on the left, also makes the turnout unpredictable.
Three scenarios
- If one or more of the three small anti-Netanyahu parties falls short, it could shift the entire balance of power and bring Netanyahu to the magic number of 61st.
- If the turnout among Netanyahu supporters drops, and the radical right-wing Religious Zionist Party does not cross the threshold, there could be a window for a center-right government made up of Netanyahu’s opponents. This is an unlikely scenario.
- If the current polls are accurate and neither party can form a coalition, Israel will run for a fifth election this summer. This is very possible.
The fragmentation of the opposition actually brought life more difficult for Netanyahu in one sense: unlike in the last three cycles, he does not have a clear rival on the left to oppose his supporters.
- Instead of a head-to-head race where Netanyahu can repeat the argument that “it’s us or them,” he has three opponents who are all at the head of medium-sized parties.
The other contenders
1. Yair Lapid and the party Yesh Atid (there is a future). A former journalist, Lapid, is the current opposition leader in the Knesset.
- What to look for: Lapid has not even declared that he wants to become prime minister, and he says he is willing to let someone else get the job to get rid of Netanyahu. Netanyahu has focused his campaign on Lapid, but he largely cannot place it as a head-to-head match.
- By the numbers: Yesh Atid gets about 20 seats in the ballot box, a distant second place from Netanyahu’s Likud, which has about 30.
Naftali Bennett and the right-wing Yamina (to the right) party. A former tech entrepreneur, Bennett, has focused his campaign on COVID-19 and the economy.
- What to look for: Although Bennett stressed the need to replace Netanyahu, he did not rule out joining a Netanyahu-led government. It could make him a king if the election results are not definitive.
- By the numbers: Yamina only votes for about 12 seats, but it may be impossible to form a coalition that excludes Netanyahu without giving Bennett the prime minister’s job.
Gideon Sa’ar and the right-wing New Hope party. Sa’ar, a former education and home affairs minister, left Likud in an attempt to position himself as a more old-school and less populist right-wing alternative to Netanyahu.
- By the numbers: Sa’ar’s party slipped in the ballot box, from about 18 seats to nine in the latest polls.
The conclusion: Only a power-sharing agreement between Lapid, Bennett and Sa’ar can produce a new Israeli government without Netanyahu. Such cooperation between the three of them will be very difficult to obtain.