Updated exit polls by two of Israel’s top TV networks show that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right – wing bloc is 59 or 60 seats short of the 61 needed for a majority.
The state of affairs: Initial forecasts that closed at the ballot box on Tuesday showed that Netanyahu’s bloc was 61 seats, which would be enough to form a majority government. The latest results, which have been updated on the early returns, show a deeply uncertain outcome.
The whole picture: Three undecided elections have left Israel in a long political crisis. If Netanyahu’s bloc does win a majority in Israel’s fourth election in two years, it could form the most religious and conservative coalition in the country’s history and possibly take steps to undermine its corruption trial.
- If the broad bloc of anti-Netanyahu parties – ranging from left to conservative – ends up with a majority, an attempt could be made to form a government that excludes Netanyahu. That would be very difficult.
- But those parties could possibly pass a law aimed at Netanyahu to ban anyone under a criminal indictment from serving as prime minister.
Between the lines: Even if the right-wing bloc does reach 61, forming a government can be difficult.
- The 61-seat projection for Netanyahu’s bloc includes a Conservative party led by former technical entrepreneur Naftali Bennet, who tried to position himself as an unbound king, but appears to have recently moved into Netanyahu’s column. has.
Note: The election on Tuesday was the lowest percentage since 2009 and was particularly low among the Arab majority in Israel. Parties from the Arab joint list may see their representation shrink by 40% -50%.
- The radical right-wing “Religious Zionism” list, which includes members of a Jewish supremacist party, is expected to win 6-7 seats.
What to look for: The forecasts will be adjusted throughout the night.