JERUSALEM (AP) – Israelis will vote Tuesday in their fourth parliamentary election in just two years. The race once again boils down to a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for the past twelve years, hopes voters will reward him for leading the country’s successful coronavirus vaccination. and his diplomatic outreach to the Arab world. His challengers highlighted his past missteps in the coronavirus strategy, his reliance on divisive religious and ultra-nationalist allies, and his ongoing corruption trial..
Over the years, Netanyahu has developed a reputation as a political wizard and master manipulator capable of surviving any crisis. With witnesses standing against him next month, Netanyahu is hoping for another miracle that could produce a friendlier parliament willing to grant him immunity or freeze his trial. Opponents portray him as a serial liar who has caused two years of political paralysis by putting his political survival and legal problems above the country’s interests.
Opinion polls predict an extremely tough race that raises the possibility of continued stalemate and even an unprecedented fifth consecutive election. Netanyahu seems to have a slight advantage because of the complexity of Israel’s political system.
In Israel, people vote for parties, not individual candidates. Netanyahu’s Likud is once again ready to emerge as the largest individual party. But because no party has ever won a 61-seat parliamentary majority on its own, political alliances must be formed to form a governing coalition. If the polls turn out to be accurate, Netanyahu would have a clearer way to build a government than the number of opponents who have little in common beyond their hostility towards him.
Here’s a look at the key factors that could determine whether Netanyahu or any of his challengers could clinch the elusive 61-seat majority.
VACCI-NATION: Netanyahu has dropped his re-election hopes on the success of Israel’s successful vaccination campaign. Netanyahu moved quickly and aggressively in December, personally urging the CEOs of Pfizer and Moderna to secure enough vaccines for Israel’s 9.3 million people. In less than three months, Israel has vaccinated about 80% of its adult population. With declining infection rates, it has allowed the country to reopen schools, restaurants, museums and the main airport just in time for election day.
Opponents accused Netanyahu of destroying the management of the pandemic the past year. A series of blockades hit the economy hard, thousands of businesses failed and unemployment remained in double digits. Many people also have bitter memories of Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies challenging the closure rules and points to the country’s more than 6,000 COVID-19 deaths.
With the economy coming back to life, Netanyahu hopes the growing sense of normalcy will make the problems of the past year forgotten. It may state that although polls show that the majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to be replaced, he is also considered the most suitable to be prime minister.
“In the minds of people is the identity of the prime minister, in the first place when you do elections,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute. “In many ways, it works in Netanyahu’s favor, because it’s unclear who the opponent is.”
SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO: Opinion polls indicate that about 15% of voters remain undecided. The election on Tuesday will not only depend on who these voters support, but also on whether they choose to vote at all.
Analysts expect the turnout to be lower than the 71% level of the last election a year ago, partly due to the constant concern about the coronavirus and the general exhaustion of voters. Israel offers special accommodation, including separate booths and mobile polling stations, to allow people who are ill or in quarantine to vote.
But more important than overall turnout will be voter turnout in key sectors. Netanyahu’s religious and nationalist allies tend to have very motivated voters. On the other hand, Arab voters, disappointed with the disintegration of the umbrella party “Joint List”, are expected to stay home in larger numbers this time. Voters in the more liberal and secular areas around Tel Aviv also tend to have lower turnout. Netanyahu can benefit if these trends materialize.
ON THE EDGE: This election could possibly depend on the appearance of a few small parties. To enter the Knesset, or parliament, a party must receive at least 3.25% of the vote, giving them at least four seats in the 120-seat body.
Pollil Camil Fuchs said four small parties are hovering near the threshold. According to the recent polls, the dowry Meretz party and the centrist Blue and White are “much more in danger” of not getting enough support. Both are members of the anti-Netanyahu bloc.
The Religious Zionist Party, a small pro-Netanyahu faction that openly includes racist and homophobic candidates, appears to be gaining strength. If one of the anti-Netanyahu parties does not succeed, a strong show by the religious Zionists could help put Netanyahu over the edge.
THE KING MAKERS: Despite the hard race, it is expected that not Netanyahu and his religious and hard allies, as well as the anti-Netanyahu bloc, led by the Yesh Lapid party, Yesh Atid, will win the majority of the seats on their own will take over.
This is the scene for former Netanyahu assistant Naftali Bennett to appear as the casting vote in the coalition building. Bennett’s Yemina party supports the same hard ideology as the Likud. But the two men have a notorious relationship and Bennett refused to commit to either side.
Given their similar worldviews, it appears that Bennett, who served as Netanyahu’s Minister of Education and Defense, is better suited to join Netanyahu than the anti-Netanyahu bloc, which ranges from deaf Arab parties to hard-core Netanyahu. allies. who had bitter personal breaks with him. However, if Bennett offers the chance to be prime minister, he could join Netanyahu’s opponents.
Some polls have predicted that both parties will lack a coalition, not even with Bennett’s support. This could create the unlikely scenario of a small Islamic party led by Arab lawmaker Mansour Abbas as kingmaker – or simply force a fifth election.
MISS IN ACTION: In the previous three elections, Netanyahu boasted of his close alliance with then-President Donald Trump, and he placed massive billboards on highways and heights that the men showed together. With Joe Biden now occupying the White House, Netanyahu has barely named the new president, whose government has given him a cool reception.
There is also almost no mention of the Palestinians, which reflects the years of freezing in substantial peace efforts. But Biden has indicated that he will soon reconnect with the Palestinians. This could make it difficult for the next Israeli leader to ignore the issue – or Biden.