From exit polls from Israel’s fourth election within two years, it has been suggested that Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling Likud party, but does not yet need a clear parliamentary majority to form a government and end the political stalemate.
Unofficial figures from three major television channels released late Tuesday night showed the Likud party with about 31-33 seats in the 120-seat parliament, the Knesset. That was far more than opposition leader Yair Lapid had predicted he would take about 16-18 seats.
Polls after the vote, however, have proved unreliable in the past. To form a 61-seat majority coalition, Netanyahu will need to convince other parties to join him. Political negotiations could fail, possibly leading to an unwanted fifth election this summer.
Netanyahu reacted to the outcome of the exit poll and did not declare victory, but said voters had expressed a striking ideological preference. “It is clear that a clear majority of Israeli citizens are on the right,” he said. said on Twitter.
In a speech on election night during a Likud rally, he said the party’s projected number of seats in parliament was “a great achievement” and that he hoped to form a “stable right-wing government”.
‘I will reach out to all elected officials who share our principles. “I will not exclude anyone,” he told supporters.
The prime minister hoped voters would attribute him to a global coronavirus vaccination campaign that led to Israel reopening shops, bars and restaurants while doing so at the same time. print infection rates.
“We are the world champion in dealing with the coronavirus,” Netanyahu told the crowd in the run-up to the vote.
At a polling station in Jerusalem, when asked who she wants to win, voter Sima Levy said by his nickname: “Always for Bibi Netanyahu”. The 58-year-old broker added: “What he has done for us and still does, he gives himself for the country … I think he is protected by God.”
The politician’s the preferred path to victory would be what is called a ‘full right-wing government’, made up of extreme nationalist, hard-line religious and far-right parties.
Allies of ultra-Orthodox Jewish factions will be relied upon, such as Aryeh Deri, who on Sunday said it was not a woman’s “natural place” to be a candidate in the party, Shas, which he leads.
The prime minister may also need support from a group considered more extreme – an alliance called Religious Zionism, which includes politicians who have spoken out against homosexual views and want to expel ‘disloyal’ Arabs from the state.
Israel’s main left-wing newspaper, Haaretz, called Israel’s potential outcome a ‘nightmare’ for ‘anyone who is not a nationalist extremist who believes in Jewish supremacy’.
While most Israelis say they want Netanyahu, he remains extremely popular compared to other candidates, despite facing several corruption charges, including bribery and fraud. He denies the charges.
Perhaps tired after repeated polls during a protracted crisis, or possibly due to the extraordinarily dusty hot weather, the turnout this year has dropped to its lowest level in more than a decade.
Shortly after voting, Robert Rosenschein, 67, who lives in Jerusalem, said the political stalemate created apathy with the political process. “There’s more exhaustion than usual because you’re tired of Covid too,” he added.
In opposition, Lapid, a former TV host and finance minister, hoped his Yesh Atid party could become a major force. To do so, however, the self-proclaimed “centris” will likely have to enter into alliances with parties from across the political spectrum, from Arab MPs to far-right nationalists, such as former Netanyahu ally Avigdor Lieberman.
Lapid took over the role of opposition chief from Benny Gantz, a former army chief who has fought Netanyahu in the past three elections but who has lost support after entering into a power-sharing deal that eventually collapsed. Retirement polls have predicted that Gantz will take only about 7-8 seats, up from 33 in the last election a year ago.
More than 6.3 million people have the right to vote. For election day, the army has closed crossings with the occupied West Bank, where more than 2.5 million Palestinians live under Israeli rule but cannot vote.
The full results may take days to come in.
Matti Tuchfeld, a commentator for the Israel Hayom daily, said there were major uncertainties surrounding this election.
Israeli law stipulates that parties need a minimum of 3.25% of all votes to enter even the Knesset, which means that violations in the ballot papers can significantly affect the results.
“Nobody knows what’s going to happen this time,” he wrote. ‘The election results are definitely unpredictable. Only one thing is clear: we should not be surprised if we are ultimately very surprised. ‘
Questions and answers
What happens?
Israelis voted Tuesday in the country’s fourth national election in less than two years.
Why would they do that?
Under the country’s political system, it is extremely difficult for a party to win an absolute majority in the 120-seat parliament, the Knesset. In the past, governments were formed by parties grouping together to form a coalition. Recent attempts, however, keep each other apart.
Why?
It depends on who you ask, and there is definitely an element of misfortune about it. The rifts that keep Israel in turmoil are nevertheless related to one man: Benjamin Netanyahu. The country’s longest-serving leader has become a bottleneck because of his domestic division, while being both worshiped and loathed.
How did the previous three votes go?
“King Bibi”, as he is known, apparently beat former army chief and opposition leader Benny Gantz in the first election in April 2019, but was blocked by a disgruntled former ally, the far-right nationalist Avigdor Lieberman, from forming a government. . In the next election, Netanyahu and Gantz were in a virtual tie and both torpedoed each other’s power. A third vote did end in a government, a compromise in which Netanyahu and Gantz agreed to rotate the premiership. But the deal collapsed in December.
What about Netanyahu’s corruption case?
The 71-year-old leader has been formally charged with corruption – allegations he denies – and will continue trials next month. Political analysts in Israel have speculated that Netanyahu broke up the last government because he would hand over power to Gantz. They say he would rather risk another election in the hope that he can fight the charges from the powerful position of prime minister.
Has anything changed this time?
Many of the key players remain the same, although some have turned around. Gantz, who campaigned for the promise to oust Netanyahu but then resigned and joined him, lost much support. Former Gantz board member Yair Lapid, who appeals to secular, middle-class Israelis, is now head of the opposition.
Is the occupation an issue in this election?
Domestic politics in Israel has dragged far to the right, and the plight of millions of Palestinians under Israeli military control has almost disappeared from the election campaigns.
When will we know the results?
Votes will drop in early Wednesday morning, but it could take days to count the ballots. If the result is muddy again, the actual battle for power could take weeks. Current polls show a deadlock, so there is a possibility the country could face a dreaded fifth election.