Early in his start Monday night against the Toronto Blue Jays on a clear night in Dunedin, Florida, Gerrit Cole’s Yankees bait fought in New York to get a good groove. He allowed a run in the first innings on two opposing field ball singles and a field goal, but it was more the frustration that was visible on his face when he left some break balls in the area that suggested the Jays could have come better. him when they had a chance.
Toronto got the first two runners down in second place, a golden opportunity to extend the early lead. Cole then finds the groove exactly when he needs it. He made Alejandro Kirk wave in three places and made him look on the slider at the bottom of the zone. He hits Josh Palacios swinging on a 98km / h heater above the top of the zone. He hit Marcus Semien swinging on a 2-2 pass on the outside corner. Three different stands – sliding bar, fast ball, change – all in great places.
The Blue Jays let Cole go off the hook. He jumped off the hill after hitting Semien, jumped to the dugout and cooled himself in front of a large fan. Cole throws 43 pitches in the first two innings, but finds his quick order from the speed ball, twists the slider and pulls off the last 15 batsmen he has faced. ride in all three runs on two home runs. Cole needed just 55 stands to get through the next four innings, and on his 98th and final course, Cole painted the black with a fast ball of 99.2 mph.
“I just thought we moved in, actually nothing more,” Cole said. “Some big mistakes in the first, but not a bunch of bad pitches in the hitting zone. In the second, a much better grouping of pitches, sort of a combination of slides early and a solid approach.”
This is the story of the Yankees 10 games this season: Cole looks like one of the top three starters in the game. However, the rest of the Yankees’ rotation remains a major question mark. Domingo German, who started New York’s third game of the season, has already been relegated to the team’s alternate spot after allowing four home games in two difficult heats. Jordan Montgomery had an excellent first start and then allowed two home runs and hit two batsmen in a so-so second start. Corey Kluber struggled with the order and is still looking for the speed and turning pace he hit before the forearm and shoulder injuries that cost him most of the 2019 and 2020 seasons.
Cole has an ERA period of three times in three times, while the other beginners have a period of 5.28. Of course, all small sample size and Jameson Taillon, which is the front of a no. 2-starter, has not yet started his second. Nothing in the early stages resolved the concerns of Yankees fans about how everyone stands behind Cole.
Can the Yankees achieve their prediction of 95 wins – or more – without a solid, reliable no. 2 starters? This is an important question, because the gap between 95 and, for example, 90 victories is obviously significant. A season of 95 wins is the Yankees favorite to win the U.S. League East; down to 90 wins and the Rays, Blue Jays and maybe even the Red Sox are much more likely to take their necks off.
I looked at all the teams to win at least 95 matches from 2010 to 2019 – that’s 42 teams – and the value of their no. 1 and no. 2 entrees checked, based on the baseball reference war and not on the start of games. or innings (looking for quality over quantity). There are two results to consider here: the difference in WAR between the two fronts and the combined WAR of the two fronts.
Let’s start with the latter. The 42 teams scored an average of 8.6 WAR from their top two starters; I was a little surprised that it was not higher. A 2-WAR pitcher is about a league average starter, so we look at averaging four to five wins above the average between the top two starters for our 95-win teams. Here are the top five and bottom five totals on this list:
Top five
1. Phillies 2011 (102 wins): 17.3 WAR (Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee)
2. Astros (107 wins) 2019: 14.1 WAR (Justin Verlander and Cole)
3. Phillies 2010 (97 wins): 14.0 WAR (Halladay and Lee)
4. Nationals 2017 (97 victories): 13.7 WAR (Max Scherzer and Gio Gonzalez)
5. Indians 2017 (102 victories): 13.1 WAR (Kluber and Carlos Carrasco)
Under five
1. 2018 Brewers (96 wins): 3.4 WAR (Jhoulys Chacin and Wade Miley)
2. 2018 A’s (97 wins): 3.8 WAR (Sean Manaea and Edwin Jackson)
3. Yankees 2019 (103 wins): 4.8 WAR (James Paxton and German)
4. 2014 Orioles (96 wins): 5.0 WAR (Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez)
5. 2019 A’s (97 wins): 5.0 WAR (Mike Fiers and Brett Anderson)
The Yankees can only look back on their recent past to realize that you can not only win 95 games, but also 103 without a first 1-2 combination. In 2019, Paxton started 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA in 29 (2.6 WAR), and German started 18-4, but with a 4.03 ERA in 24 (2.2 OVER). Thanks to a dominant bullpen and offense that dropped 306 home runs and led the AL by 943 runs, the Yankees won the AL East.
The average gap between the no. 1 and no. 2 for our 95-win teams was 1.6 WAR. Cole was worth 6.7 WAR during his final season with the Astros in 2019, which is why he is projecting reasonably well as a 6-win pitcher in 2021. There is also a reasonable belief that the no. 2-start for the Yankees will not be a 4-win pitcher, so if Taillon or whoever is their number 2, it’s a league average pitcher, it’s a potential 4-WAR difference from Cole. The top five biggest differences between our teams in the study:
1. Tigers 2011 (95 wins): 6.1 WAR (Verlander and Doug Fister)
2. Cubs 2015 (97 wins): 5.5 WAR (Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester)
3. Yankees 2011 (97 wins): 3.5 WAR (CC Sabathia and Freddy Garcia)
4. 2010 Rays (96 wins): 3.1 WAR (David Price and Matt Garza)
5. Phillies 2010 (97 wins): 3.0 WAR (Halladay and Lee)
Is there anything to deduce from this? It’s true that Cole’s drop to the Yankees’ no. 2-starter can be quite exceptional for a 95-win team … suggesting that if the Yankees do not step in behind Cole, the Yankees are likely to win less than 95 games. On the other hand, Cole plus a league average number 2 is historically good enough to host a 95-win team.
Perhaps the best answer is this: it is the depth of rotation that will be the ultimate determining factor for how many games the Yankees win (assuming a strong offense, which we should note, should not kick into gear yet). As he showed Monday, Gerrit Cole will be great if he stays healthy. However, we still have a lot to learn about Corey Kluber & Co. to learn.