Copenhagen in February 2020.
Photographer: NurPhoto / NurPhoto
Photographer: NurPhoto / NurPhoto
Vaccines are slowly but surely rolling out around the world. Does that mean it’s time to dump her and move on?
The tourism industry would like to say yes. According to the most recent data from the The World Travel and Tourism Board, published in early November, said the travel restrictions caused by the coronavirus pandemic would take $ 4.7 billion out of global gross domestic product in 2020 alone.
But medical professions continue to demand caution – a message that will remain essential even after individuals are vaccinated against Covid-19.
Among their warnings: Vaccines are not 100% effective; it takes weeks to build up immunity (after the second shot), little is known about the ability to transmit Covid-19, even after vaccination; and herd immunity will still be far away. Their consensus is that risks will remain, but the freedom of movement can safely increase – allowing at least certain types of travel – among people protected from the virus.
Yes, you will still need to wear a mask.
Here’s what you still need to know about travel safety in the coming months, whether you’ve already had a chance or are looking for normalcy somewhere.
What we know, and what we do not know
The Covid-19 vaccines approved to date in the US and Europe appear to be extremely safe, effective and the strongest tool yet to combat the pandemic. Yet there are known unknowns, especially as regards the possible transmission of viruses after vaccination.
A nurse gives a vaccine at NYU-Langone Hospital in New York.
Photographer: Kevin Hagen / AP
This question boils down to one point: clinical trials for the currently approved vaccines, including those of Pfizer and Moderna, did not include regular PCR testing of study participants. Without any information about their ability to carry the virus, there is sufficient conclusive evidence to suggest that vaccines result in 95% effective protection against symptomatic infection, says Dr. Kristin Englund, specialist in infectious diseases at the Cleveland Clinic.
‘For the most part, if vaccinated against it [a disease]”Say chickenpox or measles – you must not be able to transmit the virus to anyone else,” Englund explains, adding that there is no known reason to believe that Covid-19 or the vaccines associated with it should act differently. ‘I expect this is what we will see [with Covid-19 vaccines as well], but we have to wait until studies prove it before we can lower our guard significantly. ”
There are other important unknowns as well. “To see a vaccine that is 95% effective – these are remarkable numbers, much better than we ever expected,” says Englund. ‘But we do not have the ability to know who will have a good response [to the vaccine] and who will be one of the 5%. ”
How to think about herd immunity
Another unknown, to a lesser extent, is what it will require to effect herd immunity.
‘The general consensus is that it will take between 70% and 80% [of the population being immune] to eliminate the widespread risk – maybe more, ”says Dr. Scott Weisenberg, who serves as director of the Infectious Diseases Program at NYU and is medical director of the university’s travel medicine program. “There are still many months away from us, assuming the vaccine actually removes transmission and that people get it.”
In the best case scenario, Weisenberg believes that herd immunity could be achieved in the US this summer – pending the approval of easy distribution of vaccines such as the one from AstraZeneca, which could accelerate the deployment.
However, this is highly unlikely.
“Acceptance of the vaccine is a big key question,” he adds. To its point, the World Health Organization has cited the hesitation of vaccine as one of the top-10 threats to public health in 2019, even before Covid-19 became part of the picture.
But herd immunity can be cut in many ways and cut into cubes.
“You can talk about herd immunity in a state, within a smaller community or even within a family,” Englund adds. “If everyone in a room is vaccinated, but one, you should be able to provide more protection to the person.”
This is a notable consideration for family gatherings of which younger members may take longer to qualify for the vaccine than older or more at-risk members. (The currently approved vaccines have not yet been tested or approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, which could promote air travel among multigenerational groups until 2021.)
A safari in Kenya might seem like a good, socially distant vacation option, but you might want to consider
Source: Asilia Africa
Decision where you can go on your next holiday – and with whom you can travel – has more to do with antibodies than normal considerations such as weather and price.
“Definitely look at the current infection rate in that area and absolutely the intake of the vaccine into the population – these are two very important things,” says Englund.
Do not be surprised if it feels like a counter-intuitive exercise, Weisenberg adds.
In New York City, where presumably 25% of the population has already contracted Covid-19, herd immunity may require a proportionately smaller number of vaccinations to achieve if the previously infected people retain equal antibodies.
‘The risk [of picking up or spreading the virus] can actually be relatively low, ”says Weisenberg about the visit to Manhattan, given the severity of the closure measures, the historical acceptance of vaccines in urban areas compared to rural areas, and the high number of Covid-19 tests among the local population – despite the incredible population density.
Go to Kenya, where you may have a very social, distant safari, he adds, and you may have to go through places like Nairobi, where the test is low, and it is difficult to get an accurate picture of the risk. to get realtime.
The evolving definition of ‘safe travel’
Expect the definition of safe travel to shift week by week, especially as continents reduce the increase in cases related to vacation travel. new variants of the virus.
“You have to take into account the issues of going somewhere and bringing the virus back to an area where it is consequent,” Weisenberg says. He hopes that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will eventually have warnings for destinations, depending on the local risk, in line with the warnings from the Measles Agency, but says: . “
A good idea might be to check the availability figures of hospitals (and specifically ICU bed) before you go on holiday anywhere, to ensure that the local system is not yet overwhelmed.
A Delta plane is disinfected.
Photographer: Michael A. McCoy / Getty Images North America
Weisenberg also believes that the increasing accuracy of rapid Covid-19 antigen tests will help ensure safety as mobility increases; it is noteworthy that the new US admission requirements include negative test results, even for those who have already been vaccinated.
‘I’m going to get on a plane; I will be honest with you, ”said Englund. ‘I’ll wear a mask, and I’ll make sure we have seats where we do not sit next to someone else, with the necessary space in between and use all the hand cleaners.
‘We get an Airbnb and spend quality time on a beach,’ she continues, ‘and when we visit local sites, we’m pretending not to be vaccinated; we approach things with the same precautions as before. -vaccine. I do not think there is anything wrong with that. ”