There is no simple answer as to why the polls missed the mark in the recent election. But one of the mistakes is probably the deteriorating public confidence in institutions, such as the government and the news media – and the link between vigilance and the voice for Trump. Between his public statements and Twitter account, the former president specifically questioned the poll, which, according to Democratic consultants, led to his supporters refusing to participate in surveys.
“Trump went to the polls,” said another Democratic poller involved in the partnership. “He was really very candid with those who listened to some of his mistrust in the polls or the media.”
The 2020 election has broken election records – and since November, voters have been eagerly awaiting officials information from the states on who voted and who did not. That data is now almost completely available, and there are clues hidden in it.
The Democratic polls, which usually compete for business, acknowledge that Trump has been able to activate a large number of voters who have been less reliable in the past. Looking at one state where the polls were down – Iowa, where Trump beat Biden handily and which was seen as a successive Senate race, went decisively for incumbent GOP senator Joni Ernst – Republicans who are considered “low-leaning voters” classified. according to the Democratic Republic, four times the rate of the Democrats in that category memo.
“This turnout error was clearly one factor in the ballot box across the board, but especially in deep Republican areas,” the memorandum reads. “It also meant that we, at least in some places, again underestimated the relative turnout among rural and white non-college voters, who are over-represented among low-ranking Republicans.”
But the sky-high rise for Trump among irregular voters explains only a small chunk of the problem, the polls found. Even if the polls conducted last year were properly adjusted for future turnout, they would still have been biased against the Democrats.
The memorandum drives at least three possible causes: late movement toward Trump and Republican candidates who could not catch polls leading up to the election, the Covid pandemic that caused people staying at home, the phone had to respond at a higher rate than those who did not follow restrictions, and the decline of social trust and belief in institutions.
But there is little clarity on how important each of the hypotheses was.
‘Although there is evidence that some of these theories have played a role, there has been no consensus on a solution. What we decided on was the idea there is systematically something different about the people we have reached, and the people we have not reached, ”Reads the memo. “This problem seems to have been magnified when Trump was on the ballot, and it is precisely the voters who activated Trump who did not take part in the polls.”
Some Democrats believe that these mistakes are a direct Trump effect – that he is a unique force in politics and gives extreme opinions on both sides – and it will fade if he is no longer a candidate.
“I do not think we know what it is. “I think we still have a lot of work to do to find out,” said one poll. “I’m a little bit optimistic that we can fix that if Trump’s go to the polls in ’24. I do not know. If he is not, I think a lot of it can resolve itself. ”
The Democratic effort contrasts with the last major review of a party’s voting practices. Following the 2012 election, the so-called “autopsy” of the Republican National Committee – best known for its recommendation that party leaders moderate their stance on immigration and other social issues – included a list of best practices for pollsters, which also the party’s headquarters were called. for reservations.
The five Democratic enterprises that signed the memo are ALG Research, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, GBAO Strategies, Global Strategy Group and Normington Petts. Together, they are five of the top six election firms working for the Democratic Party apparatus, along with Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, according to financial disclosure reports. ALG Research was Biden’s mainstay in last year’s election.
Participants in the Democrats’ review said that the process – which, unlike the IDP’s attempt in 2012, was not prescribed by party officials – was collegial, despite the fact that the five businesses were doing business on each other.
“One should feel comfortable talking to your competitors because in the end we all want the same thing,” said a third contestant. “We all want a useful way to guide democratic candidates and progressive issues.”