Gov. Kate Brown, Oregon, on Friday acknowledged the alarming rise of COVID-19 in Oregon – which according to one new forecast will exceed more than 1,200 new cases per day and 300 patients in the hospital in early May.
Speaking at a live news conference, Brown said she was sticking to her decision to ban indoor dining at bars and restaurants in provinces with the highest COVID-19 rates earlier this month because she wanted to avoid repeated measures last winter. the economy effectively closed.
“As always, it’s a balancing act,” she said.
Brown also said his decision is being further strengthened: About 23% of the state’s residents have been fully vaccinated and she trusts the state’s residents to act safely.
“Oregons at this point,” she said, “know how to take personal responsibility for wearing masks, to social distance, to do the right thing to protect themselves and their loved ones.”
However, a forecast issued by Oregon Health & Science University on Friday takes into account the current behavior of state residents and still predicts that the average number of new known cases of COVID-19 more than doubles from the current level of about 600 to 1210 by May 4, within three weeks from now.
The forecast also predicts that the number of hospital patients severely affected by the disease will increase by almost 70%, from about 195 to about 330 by mid-May.
The prediction, made by OHSU data scientist Peter Graven, can be viewed here.
Overall, Oregon has performed exceptionally well in limiting infections – the third lowest among states in the number of COVID-19 cases since the onset of the pandemic. But over the past week it has fared significantly worse and this week it has taken 26th place in new cases. New daily affairs have more than doubled in the last four weeks.
In addition, the Oregon Health Authority reported for the first time this week that it had detected the B.1.351 variant, which was originally identified in South Africa, within Oregon’s borders. Officials have announced a total of eight cases of B.1.351, which is thought to be more contagious and more successful in evading the efficacy of current vaccines. Other variants such as B.1.1.7 also jumped in numbers.
OHSU’s forecast takes into account the role of the variants and more time residents have been spending indoors with others and in restaurants in recent weeks. It also explains the pause over Johnson & Johnson’s one-time vaccinations with the coronavirus rates in the state and the number of hospital beds occupied by COVID-19 patients.
“It can go up to 20 beds a day,” Graven said, noting the jump between Monday and Tuesday this week. “So that the pillow can disappear.”
Although Graven’s model does not predict the number of deaths, experts believe there will be fewer of them in Oregon and in your entire state. This is because so many older people who are more susceptible to coronavirus damage have been vaccinated and that it is now largely younger, unvaccinated people who are admitted to hospital. But apart from death, which is still a real possibility, younger people run the risk of long-term negative health consequences.
The number of new cases and hospitalizations is expected to start to decline after the first week of May and remain low. Graven said he will have to adjust the numbers, but if the emergence of new variants causes more vaccinated people to get sick. This is known as ‘vaccine escape’.
This story will be updated. Check back later on OregonLive.com.
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– Aimee Green; [email protected]; @o_aimee