Party chairman of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Armin Laschet (L), and state prime minister of Bavaria and the chairman of the Christian Social Union (CSU), Markus Soeder, come for a joint press conference on the occasion of a closed door- faction meeting of CDU and CSU on April 11, 2021 in Berlin, Germany.
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In the early hours of Tuesday morning, the Conservative alliance of German Chancellor Angela Merkel finally chose a candidate to represent the center-right bloc in the country’s national election later this year, after months of uncertainty and delay.
Until then, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), or its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), could not agree on who should lead the Conservatives to the September 26 election. Merkel announced in 2018 that she will not be running for a fifth term.
At a meeting of the CDU council on Monday night, however, a majority of senior party members voted to nominate Armin Laschet, the leader of the CDU and state prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, as a candidate for chancellor for this year’s election.
About 77.5% (31 members) of the party’s federal executive committee, according to reports from the German newspaper Deutsche Welle and Reuters, voted in favor of the party leader, while its rival Markus Soeder received only 9 votes.
The CDU tweeted during the night that there was “a long and intense debate among the members of the 17 regional associations, district associations and associations about people, election prospects and the party-based vote” before the vote in favor of Laschet.
Soeder, who heads the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, the CSU, said on Tuesday that he would accept the decision and support Laschet, wishing him great success for the difficult challenge ahead, ‘Reuters reported.
Party mood
The inability of the alliance to present a candidate so far has been a source of frustration for CDU-CSU officials and has not yet been lost on opposition politicians who could influence the formation of a new government in September. not.
The CDU-CSU leads in different polls, but the Greens are not so far behind. Four polls conducted in Germany in mid-April put support for the alliance at around 28-31%, while support for the Greens in the same polls was between 20-22%.
Strategists expect the most likely outcome of the election is that the CDU-CSU will form a coalition with the Greens. Although there is little chance that the Greens, if the CDU-CSU performed very poorly, would form a coalition with other parties such as the Social Democrats or the Free Democratic Party.
The Green Party confirmed on Monday that Annalena Baerbock will be her candidate for the next German chancellor.
Jürgen Trittin, a member of the Bundestag and former leader of the Green Party of Germany, told CNBC on Monday that the party now has an outside chance that it could even lead the German government.
“I have never seen such a crisis in the conservative Christian Democratic party in my political life,” Trittin said, arguing that the CDU-CSU’s indecision over which candidate will lead the bloc in the election damages the alliance. wash.
“Even if they decide now, the other side of the party has been so hurt and damaged that they will have a real problem in the election campaign and as a potential coalition partner for whoever.”
The Green Party is gaining confidence and even dares to dream that it can overtake the CDU / CSU when it comes to the vote in September.
“Anything is possible,” Konstantin von Notz, a member of the Bundestag and Green Party, told CNBC on Tuesday.
“There should be no doubt about it, it is going to be a very difficult election campaign,” he said, adding: “People from all parties will be very difficult for us because the Greens say we can be the leading party and that makes every enemy awakens. ‘
Game of chicken
Before the approval of Laschet by the CDU overnight, Holger Schmieding, chief economist of Berenberg Bank, noted on Monday that the ‘game of chicken’ between Laschet and Soeder had apparently come to an end and noted what a chancellery in Laschet could do for Germany. mean.
The choice between Soeder and Laschet ‘is about style, charisma and a supposed electoral appeal rather than having big differences in content’, he said in a note.
“Laschet is widely seen as the candidate for continuity. He has generally supported Merkel in other policies, including her handling of the refugee crisis in 2015. His somewhat modest style and penchant for moderate and bridging differences seem like Merkel’s approach,” Schmieding said. said.
He added that Laschet is also likely to experience some additional fiscal burden sharing in the EU and the eurozone.