Biden’s piece Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is a ‘warning’

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES – President Joe Biden’s press secretary delivered a striking message to Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, this week. Jen Psaki said at a news conference, using diplomatic language, that the relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia, especially the crown prince of the kingdom, is being downgraded.

“Regarding Saudi Arabia, I would say that we have made it clear from the beginning that we are going to recalibrate our relationship with Saudi Arabia,” Psaki said in the White House on Tuesday.

Asked if Biden would speak to the crown prince, she replied: ‘Part of it goes back to peers. The president’s counterpart is King Salman, and I expect him to have a conversation with him at an appropriate time. I do not have a timeline about it. ‘

The quotes drew immediate attention from local analysts and foreign policy experts, and probably Gulf leaders as well, as a blatant piece of Saudi Arabia’s 35-year-old heir to the monarchy and arguably the most powerful man in the region.

“Well, I think what Jen said, I actually know what she said, is that the president will link up with his peer, and that’s his peer, is the king,” said Ned Price, spokesman for the State Department. , Told reporters on Wednesday.

Price added that Foreign Minister Antony Blinken would similarly liaise with his counterpart, Sais Saudi Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud.

“President Biden has said that we will review the whole of the relationship to make sure it promotes the interests and is respectful and respects the values ​​we bring to that partnership,” Price said.

“We know, of course, that Saudi Arabia is a key partner in many different areas. Regional security terrorism is just two of them,” he added.

“The sniff of MBS is a warning to Saudi Arabia,” Torbjorn Soltvedt, chief MENA analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, wrote in an email note Wednesday in which he referred to the crown prince through his initials. “This will be seen as a disapproval of MBS’s leadership characterized by unpredictable decision-making and a much less consultative approach than in the past.”

And the government’s apparent intention to overthrow the crown prince represents a dramatic departure from the Trump White House, which made Saudi Arabia the former president’s first overseas visit, signed major arms deals with the kingdom in defiance of the opposition of Congress and refrained from criticizing the kingdom. about its human rights violations.

This does not have to be a big surprise, as Biden promised a tougher line on the oil-rich Islamic monarchy early on. During a primary debate in early 2020, Biden promised to make Saudi Arabia ‘the pariah they are’.

“It’s hardly a surprising move, but it’s fat, and it’s going to hurt,” Michael Stephens, an analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC. “There is no doubt that Psaki’s comments are directed at the Crown Prince, even though he is in all respects the man in charge of the kingdom.”

A number of scandals and crises that have come out of the kingdom since the Crown Prince came to power have condemned not only democracy but also Republicans.

According to one former Obama administration official, who spoke anonymously due to professional restrictions, “the Saudis in Washington are in the worst position they have ever been. It was just covered by the Trump White House.”

The Saudi government did not respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.

Biden has already given a blow to a major arms sale to the kingdom and other Gulf allies signed under the Trump administration, and he commands an end to US support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen, which created what the UN calls. world’s worst man – made humanitarian crisis.

And the kingdom has come under international condemnation for the 2018 assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi by state agents. American intelligence has linked death to the crown prince, something Riyadh forcibly denies.

“With the ongoing war in Yemen, the repression of prominent members of the country’s political and business elite in 2017, the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 and the oil price war last year, there is no shortage of raw issues for the Biden government. to take an umbrella with you, ”Soltvedt wrote.

But how realistic is the goal of the Biden team to circumvent the crown prince – who is also defense minister, the next throne manager and makes most of the kingdom’s most important decisions?

According to Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst near the royal court, this is not realistic at all.

“They can do nothing if they do not deal with MBS,” Shihabi told Politico. “The king is functioning, but he is very old. He is the chairman of the board. He is not involved in the daily affairs. Ultimately, they want to speak directly to MBS.”

King Salman, the reigning king since 2015, is now 85 years old.

Verisk’s Soltvedt agrees. “King Salman is the head of state and ultimately possesses the levers of power. But it is MBS that exercises direct control over the most important portfolios and institutions of the kingdom,” he wrote. A change in Washington’s approach to dealing with the Saudi leadership will not change that. ‘

Although the Biden government is expected to place a lower priority on the Gulf states than its predecessor did, they remain America’s leading arms customers and regional counterterrorism partners, as well as oil suppliers – although by the year for the latter less and less less so. .

Although the Biden team indicates a shift, it is not going to be a break in relations, many foreign policy experts believe.

“I think the most important thing to realize is that over the years, US policy towards Saudi Arabia has been relatively consistent, regardless of which party was in power,” said Tarek Fadlallah, CEO of Nomura.

“There will be a slightly different tone between this White House and the last White House,” Fadlallah said. “But I do not think it will be consequent in terms of policy towards the region or policy towards Saudi Arabia.”

– CNBC’s Amanda Macias contributed to this Washington report.