There are only ten weeks left of the American war in Afghanistan – at least on paper.
Why it matters: Donald Trump promised a full-fledged troop on May 1 as part of an agreement reached with the Taliban one year ago. President Biden must now decide whether he can bear the risks of respecting it.
The whole picture: Under the agreement, the Taliban promised to reduce violence, enter into peace talks with the Afghan government (which was not a party to the Trump-Taliban agreement) and ensure that Afghanistan does not become a haven for terrorist groups like any other. – no. Kaïda.
- The Taliban has stopped targeting US and NATO troops, but continues to attack Afghan forces. Intra-Afghan peace talks stalled, and the Taliban refused to cut ties with al-Qaeda.
- Meanwhile, Trump downgraded the U.S. troop count to 2,500 from about 13,000 before leaving office. NATO allies still have 8,000 troops in the country.
- Flash back: The number of troops under Barack Obama rose to 100,000. The most prominent internal opponent of Obama’s rise was Biden, who has long advocated for a smaller operation focusing on counter-terrorism.
The state of affairs: The Pentagon has accused the Taliban of fulfilling its commitments, but says the deal is still valid. Biden also detained the man who negotiated it, Zalmay Khalilzad.
- NATO has not decided whether its troops will stay beyond May, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said last week. The alliance’s decision will now be linked to Biden’s decision.
Biden has three broad choices.
1. Get out on time.
- If you retire completely before May, it could lead to the ‘collapse of the Afghan state’ and ‘renewed civil war’, according to a recent report by the Afghan Study Group, a congressional commission chaired by former Joint Chiefs Joe Dunford.
- The commission also warned that within 18 months to three years, Afghanistan could once again be a base for terrorist groups to plan against the United States.
- If Biden finally ends America’s war in Afghanistan, he could be forced to watch cities fall under the Taliban and the generous freedoms for Afghan women wiped out.
- The argument for fully withdrawn is that there will never be a happy ending to this war, and that 20 years is long enough.
2. Withdraw from the agreement and return to a “condition-based” approach.
- The Taliban is likely to resume attacks on US and NATO forces and withdraw completely from the peace process within the Afghan government.
- It will face the US again for an open commitment to Afghanistan and the prospect of sending additional troops if conditions worsen.
- The argument for this approach is that the Taliban do not intend to keep their end of the agreement, and America has thrown too much into the fight to see its profits wiped out.
3. Seek extension to the deadline and place renewed emphasis on the peace process.
- This would buy Biden time and give the intra-Afghan talks a chance at success.
- But that would require the Taliban to agree to an expansion, just as their primary goal – the removal of foreign troops from Afghanistan – comes into focus.