The interests are high as US and coalition troops in Iraq continue to repel frequent attacks from Iranian-backed Shia militia groups. On Monday, militias launched a barrage of 14,107 mm rockets at an Iraqi air base in Irbil, where US forces are based. Three rockets hit the base, killing one non-US contractor and injuring nine people, including five Americans.
Tensions are mounting as the Pentagon, led by Biden, is investigating whether to make changes to US military deployments worldwide, with a view to addressing China’s growing threat. The review, although still in its infancy, is likely to spark a new battle for limited resources among local military leaders.
‘It was all meant to indicate that there’s a new sheriff in town in Washington, and we’re going to review everything [Trump] done – no more carte blanc, ”said Bilal Saab, a former Trump defense official who is now at the Middle East Institute. ‘At the same time … it’s a relationship you obviously do not want to lose. It’s too valuable to get confused. ”
Since frictions with Iran erupted in the spring of 2019 when Iran paralyzed two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, military leaders in the Pentagon and the US Central Command have urged the White House to step up US military presence in the Middle East , sometimes colliding. with their civilian counterparts wanting to move resources to Asia, according to talks with five former and current officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive operational planning. Military officials have sounded the alarm about Saudi Arabia’s vulnerability, especially after an attack in September 2019 on the state – owned Saudi Aramco oil processing facilities at Abqaiq, which temporarily halted half of Saudi oil production.
The pressure mostly passed. Over the past two years, the Pentagon has deployed thousands of additional troops, as well as fighter jets and bomber squadrons, warships and missile defense batteries, to the region. Meanwhile, General Frank McKenzie, chief of the U.S. Central Command, has insisted on holding at least one carrier strike group in the Middle East at all times, former and current officials said, and early last year had a rare two carriers in the region for ‘ operated for a long period. .
While levels in the region have fluctuated since May 2019, the U.S. military presence there has declined over the past few months, according to Capt. Bill Urban, spokesman for the Central Command. Between June 1, 2019 and December 1, 2020, Urban estimated that there were mostly 60,000 to 80,000 troops in the region. But today, US military levels are below 60,000 troops – not significantly higher than on May 1, 2019.
Some in Biden’s government have questioned whether the military build – up in the Gulf has deterred Iran. Tehran is still making progress towards nuclear weapons capability, and Iranian officials are publicly refusing to negotiate a new nuclear treaty without sanctions. Meanwhile, the Houthis and other Iranian proxies continue to attack Saudi facilities and other US interests in the region.
The new government has indicated that it wants to put pressure on Riyadh. Just weeks after taking office, Biden ordered a temporary freeze on the sale of precision-guided weapons to Saudi Arabia pending a review and an end to all U.S. military support for the Saudi-led coalition’s offensive. operations in the Yemeni civil war. The administration is also investigating whether the current levels of power in the region should be maintained as part of the global review.
But experts say these steps will do little to change the ground in Yemen, where Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have been fighting Saudi-led forces for years. Biden officials described the review of weapons as routine, and years ago the Trump administration ended most U.S. military support to the coalition, including fueling supplies and sharing intelligence for offensive operations.
“To some extent, the Biden government has been outraged by this,” Dave Des Roches, associate professor at the Center for Strategic Studies in the Near East of South Asia, told the National Defense University, noting that the Saudis emphasized the American commitment to their territorial integrity. .
‘If you have a spectacular attack or missile coming to Riyadh, Biden’s administration is trapped. You have to respond. You must try to get the starting points out. ”
A spokesman for the National Security Council declined to comment.
Meanwhile, the State Department overturned a last-minute decision by the Trump administration to designate the Houthi as a foreign terrorist organization, after humanitarian leaders warned that the designation of terrorism would make it difficult for them to carry out emergency relief work in Yemen. do.
However, the move should not be seen as a lack of US commitment to Saudi Arabia, rather as an attempt to alleviate the humanitarian catastrophe, one defense official said. In fact, Foreign Minister Antony Blinken has spoken to his Saudi counterparts several times and last week strongly condemned Houthi attacks on a Saudi airport.
‘The delicate balance here is that although there is a dual consensus that US military support for the coalition in Yemen has not changed and human suffering in Yemen has only worsened … there is no two-party majority “cut off support that the Saudis are defending themselves,” the official said.
Biden has also indicated that the US will play a leading role in negotiating a diplomatic solution to the war in Yemen, and will name a veteran US diplomat, Tim Lenderking, as the US envoy for the conflict.
Lenderking said during a briefing with reporters on Tuesday that a “negotiated settlement” was the only way to end the conflict, while being careful to condemn the recent attacks on Houthi.
“These attacks on civilian infrastructure are not the actions of a group that claims they want peace, and they need to stop,” he said. “Unless and until the Houthis change their reprehensible behavior, their leaders will remain under significant American and international pressure.”
Biden and his team “made it clear that we will not allow Saudi Arabia to be a target practice,” he said.
And in a sign that Riyadh may be doing favor with the new government, officials released prominent woman rights activist Loujain al-Hathloul, who is best known for his ban on women-driving, after nearly three years.
Yet there are few signs that the military is planning to shift gears as the new government moves in. Only a few days after Biden’s inauguration, McKenzie traveled to Saudi Arabia, where he announced a new agreement with Riyadh to use different airports and ports in the western regions of the country.
The Global Deployment Review is designed in part to assess Iran’s continuing threat and how best to ensure partners’ commitment to the United States maintains stability in the region.
But in the meantime, the message from Central Command was consistent. In public remarks last week, McKenzie noted the continued attacks on Saudi Arabia by Iranian delegates and promised to continue US military support to defend against future invasion.
“Nothing said or done means we will not continue to involve Saudi Arabia and our other coalition partners,” McKenzie said last week. “Our focus is to do things to help them defend themselves more and more effectively. There is a general threat and Iran is a threat.”
And although Biden this month announced an end to U.S. military support for the Saudi-led coalition’s offensive operations in Yemen, the exchange of intelligence related to the defense of the Kingdom will continue, the Pentagon said.
McKenzie “continues as it is,” a former defense official said, referring to the push for an expanded U.S. military presence in Saudi Arabia. ‘I hope the Biden people think it’s nut. It’s just going to increase tension to put all these people in there. But the Saudis expect it. ”
Nahal Toosi contributed to this report.