400,000 more U.S. deaths than normal since hitting Covid-19

Since March, at least 400,000 more Americans have died than would have happened in a normal year, a sign of the great devastation caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

An analysis of mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that the pandemic causes unusual patterns of death, even higher than the official total deaths directly linked to the virus.

Deaths nationwide were 18 percent higher than normal from March 15, 2020 to December 26, 2020. Our numbers could be a countdown, as recent death statistics are still being updated.

Our analysis examines deaths due to all causes – not just confirmed cases of coronavirus – that began when the virus took hold in the United States last year. It enables comparisons that do not depend on the accuracy of cause of death, and includes deaths related to disruption caused by the pandemic, as well as the virus itself. Epidemiologists refer to deaths in the gap between the observed and normal numbers of deaths as “excess deaths”.

Public health investigators use such methods to measure the impact of catastrophic events when official death tolls are lacking.

As Covid-19 cases spread across the country, the geographic patterns of abnormal death statistics followed. Additional deaths have peaked three times so far, as well as the deaths due to Covid-19.

There are now excessive deaths in every state, with increases in states such as California, Colorado, Kansas and Ohio that have seen the death rate rise in recent weeks.

Counting deaths takes time, and many states are weeks or months behind with reporting. These estimates by the CDC are adjusted based on how mortality rates have lagged behind in previous years. It will take several months before all these numbers are finalized.

During the period of our analysis, the estimated excess mortality was 21 percent higher than the official coronavirus mortality rate. If this pattern is maintained until January 14, the total death toll will be about 470,000.

By comparison, about 600,000 Americans die of cancer in a normal year. The number of unusual deaths during this period is higher than the typical number of annual deaths due to Alzheimer’s, stroke or diabetes.

Measuring excess deaths does not tell us exactly how each person died. Most excess deaths during this period are due to the coronavirus itself. But it is also possible that deaths due to other causes have also increased, as hospitals have become overwhelmed in some hotspots and people have been afraid to seek care for ailments that usually survive. Some causes of death can decrease because people stay inside more, drive less and limit their contact with others.

Drug deaths also rose sharply in the first half of 2020, according to preliminary CDC mortality rates lasting until June last year, a trend that began before the coronavirus pandemic broke out.

Methods

Total mortality rates are estimates of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which are based on death certificates counted by the Centers and adjusted to take account of typical delays in reporting deaths. Coronavirus mortality rates come from the New York Times database of reports from state and local health agencies and hospitals. Covid-19 deaths contain both confirmed and probable deaths due to the virus.

Our charts show weekly deaths above or below normal. It contains weeks in which the CDC estimates that the data is at least 90 percent complete or estimated deaths are above expected mortality rates. Because states differ somewhat in reporting deaths to the federal government, these state maps show death trends for slightly different periods. We did not include weeks in which deaths reported were less than 50 percent of the CDC estimate.

Expected deaths were calculated according to a simple model based on the weekly number of deaths from all causes from 2015 to 2019, adjusted to take into account trends, such as population changes, over time.

Excessive mortality rates are rounded off.