Turnover is a fact of the NFL. Even when the league added two playoff teams to make a 14-team series in 2020, five of the 12 teams that made it to the 2019 national season did not return this season. This is a group that includes the 49ers, who were the best seeded in the NFC and its representatives in Super Bowl LIV, and the Patriots, who have won the playoffs in 17 of the previous 19 seasons. The Texans, Vikings and Eagles also failed to make it to January, with two of the three not even coming particularly close.
Let’s try to project what the playoff picture of 2021 might look like by the end of next season. Let me start with the obvious: this is going to be wrong. We do not know who even the Eagles or Texans will coach, and whether their starting quarterback will stay another season. By doing so, I predict that the chances are slim that Deshaun Watson or Carson Wentz will be traded to one of their more obvious suitors, such as the Dolphins of Jets.
We know the Colts will have a new starting quarterback as Philip Rivers announced his retirement on Wednesday, but Drew Brees’ future with the Saints is still in the air. We do not even know if fans in stadiums will be able to rejoice in September.
I will rely on the facts we know, namely how each team performed in 2020 and what at least 16 games will look like on their schedule in 2021 – to guess educated about the playing field of next season. Where I made particularly surprising choices, I tried to provide a historical context for teams that made similar leaps or similar declines.
Let’s start with the team that is probably the least surprising choice, the defending champion:
Jump to a team:
ATL | BAL | BUF | CHI | CLE
DAL | GB | IND | JAX | KC
LAR | MIA | NE | NO | WICK
SF | SEE | TB | TIEN | WSH