On Monday night, the San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs agreed on a seven-player deal that would send right-handed Yu Darvish, personal catcher Victor Caratini and cash considerations to the West Coast in exchange for right-handed Zach Davies and four prospects: the outside players Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena and short-lived Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana.
Darvish’s arrival in San Diego comes less than 24 hours after the Padres agreed to trade left-handed Tampa Bay Rays Blake Snell. It also comes a month and a half after the 34-year-old Darvish finished second in the National League Cy Young Award poll (behind free agent Trevor Bauer), after a season in which he started 12 times and his career best in ERA + (221) and the eliminate-to-step ratio (6.64).
What does this trade mean for the fantasy value of Yu Darvish? CBS Sports experts broke it out on Fantasy Baseball Today’s latest podcast. Listen below:
As with Snell, Darvish is still under contract for three more seasons. He will bring home nearly $ 60 million in the 2023 season, including $ 22 million next year.
We here at CBS Sports are nothing, if not judgmental. As such, we decided to break down the trade while giving grades to each team. Let’s now move on to the part of the effort, beginning with a summary of the moving pieces:
- Addresses received: RHP Yu Darvish, C Victor Caratini, cash
- Cubs received: RHP Zach Davies, OR Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena, SS Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana
Padres degree: A
It seems too cute to write that the Padres have hacked this era of baseball by deciding that they want to win now, and that they are willing to pay players to do so – but is that false? In the span of 24 hours, the Padres added two above-average starting pitchers without sacrificing the top of their farming system; one scout indeed estimated that San Diego traded two players from his top 10. (Preller also allegedly colored Korean burglar Ha-Seong Kim, who starts as a forward of the league average and should see significant action on the second base.) All a dangerous team, now looks more capable. It may not be enough to chase the Los Angeles Dodgers into the National League West, but they have a better chance of it than a week or three days ago.
Although Darvish has struggled in his first and a half seasons in Chicago, he has been in good shape since July 2019. It is never advisable to take cutting and cutting years into account, but to illustrate the point: he holds the opposition at two runs less in 17 of his last 26 starts. In 2020 alone, Darvish applied a higher number of strikes and missed a greater number of bats than it had before. These gains appear to be due to an altered pitch mix that allowed him to beat more knives, slides and curves and less four-seam-fast balls.
Will Darvish continue to perform at this shallow? Probably not. Is there a risk here? Definitely; he’s getting deeper into his mid – 30s, and he’s had some scars in the past. At some point, decay occurs for everyone – yes, even for you and Yu. Yet Darvish has a dizzying amount of stuff and intelligence, and it’s hard to argue with its history. He posted an ERA + above 100 in seven of his eight major seasons and in 120 of the campaigns he was 120. The Padres therefore have every reason to believe that Darvish will make a meaningful contribution over the next three years. .
One of the stranger aspects of this trade is how Caratini, who served as Darvish’s personal catcher in 2020, is seen as a throw-in. He is more than a hot body; this year last year he had an above-average attack that caused the Cubs to scramble to find additional playing time for him. Now, Caratini is probably not going to hit enough to be a prosperous appetizer, but he walks and he frames and that makes him a good backup candidate. He should at least be an upgrade over Francisco Mejia, who sent the Padres into the Snell deal.
Cubs’ grade: D
There is reason to believe this is the beginning of the rebuilding of the Cubs. What exactly that means has to be determined, but the feeling across the league is and was during the winter that everyone is available. In other words, Cubs fans need to get used to the team sending out veterans for potential people. Is this the way a big market innings, which appears from a play-off match and is only years away from a world series championship, should behave? No not really.
However, the Ricketts family will blame their reluctance to spend to keep their core – Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras – and support them for the financial losses they suffered during the pandemic. The statement does not explain why the cubs were playing with a reset before COVID-19 was a thing, nor why they have been so excluded over the past few years that they could not sign Adam Warren species. You can only hope that the Ricketts learn that they need to help themselves pull up their own shoelaces rather than turn to others to save their poor decisions.
The return here is shockingly light given … well, everything: Caratini’s inclusion; the financial component going back to San Diego; and Darvish himself. It’s hard to believe that the Cubs could not garner interest from other teams that could use the rotation boost and that apparently have money to spend. Within the state of California alone, that means the Dodgers, the Angels and the Giants. Yet they could not or did not want to try. One way to bring about peace is to accept things for what they are instead of what you think they should be. If we keep that in mind, we move on to the players themselves.
Davies is a right-handed midfielder who achieved the best season of his career (157 ERA + and 3.22 strike-to-walk ratio in 12 starts). He does not throw hard, and he has always been more of a contact manager than a bat, but that changed a bit in 2020. Davies throws his cambio more than ever before, more than 40 percent of the time, and the adjustment boosts his K rate to eight per nine overs. He is a free agent next winter who, in combination with the breakdown of the Cubs, suggests that he will be on the block again in July.
Only one of the other four players the Cubs received played in a truly professional game. (This is Santana, whose history includes all 41 games on American soil.) The variety of results for each player here is therefore ridiculous and depends on the ability of the Cubs’ development staff to get the best out of these youngsters.
Caissie, San Diego’s second-round pick this summer, just turned 18 in July and is arguably the best prospect the Cubs have had. He is a well-built Canadian with a promising bat and good power potential. He’s likely to end up in a corner. Santana (20) is a good athlete who can stay short. Preciado (17) received more than $ 1 million to sign in July 2019. He has a projectable frame that suggests he may have to slip shortstops if he fills. Then there is Mena, who has the tools to become an above-average defensive midfielder. It remains to be seen whether he can keep that promise.