Washington, United States.
The World Bank divulges this March a pessimistic diagnosis of the global economy, covid-19 seal, and warns that its recovery will depend in the midst of the rapidity with which massive evacuation campaigns are deployed.
The institution reduced its forecast for crime in the world by 2021, although it considers that the economic cycle in 2020 was “less strong” at the time, with a 4.3% decline in the 4.5% forecast in June. .
It is hoped that global GDP will increase by 4% this year, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points in comparison with the latest projection, detailing the institution in its global economic perspective.
The new forecasts reflect its panorama to 2020 finals all over the globe, where the contidios of covid-19 will be incremented and he surpassed new variants of the coronavirus, leading to new restrictions that disrupted more than economic activity.
These countermeasures also provoked, according to the World Bank, a “substantial” reduction in public and private entrants. By a lad the tax ingres he had and by the other massive losses he affected the power of acquisition of the hogares.
“It is probable that the recovery will be moderate, while the policy formulations are being acted upon to take a decision to control the pandemic and to implement reforms that increase inversions,” the institution said. muy inciertas “.
The most pessimistic scenario, if the covid-19 infections continue to rise and the evacuation campaigns recur, is planning a 1.6% expansion in 2021.
On the other hand, the most optimistic hypothesis – control of the pandemic and acceleration of vacancies – has a 5% increase in cases.
Live recovery
In Latin America and the Caribbean, the multilateral organization predicted an economic expansion of 3.7% this year, increasing its forecast ahead of a 2.8% increase for the region, published in June.
“It hopes that regional economic activity will reach 3.7% in 2021, while making it more flexible to initiate the pandemic, distribute vacancies, stabilize the prices of basic basic products and improve external conditions”, dijo the World Bank.
Without embarrassment, he recalls that the recovery, which reads a decade of slow crime, “will be very long”.
Advising that a negative scenario, with returns on the distribution of the vaccine against covid-19 and secondary economic effects, could reduce the increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 1.9%.
As far as the United States is concerned, it has an estimated contraction of 3.6% in 2020, it is hoped that the GDP will be 3.5% in 2021, 0.5 percentage points less than the previous forecast.
The euro area will see an expansion of 3.6%, over a period of 7.4% in 2020, while Japan will only grow 2.5% in 2021 through a contraction of 5.3% in 2020.
Economic activity will be more robust in emerging markets and developing economies.
The World Bank hopes that these countries will grow by 5% this year, mainly thanks to China, which will create a 7.9% contraction of 2.6% in 2020.
Debt crisis
The unequaled front on this crisis is “dramatic” and has generated a “devastating increase in extreme poverty”, lamented the President of the World Bank, David Malpass, during a conference on telephone press on March.
“People on the lower side of the scale of encroachments have the most affected” by the recession and “are likely to be the last to find work, get medical attention, evacuate and adapt to the economy” post Covid, aggregate.
“The pandemic has reached millions of people in poverty,” the organization said in a statement, urging governments to initiate massive inversion reforms and programs to improve digital health, education and infrastructure services.
“It is probable that the deceleration of the global crime rate forecast for the next decade will increase due to the lack of inversions, the sub-sample and the reduction of the labor force in many advanced economies”, he advised.
Although the World Bank frequently shows its preoccupation with the accumulation of debt in emerging markets and emerging economies, it has been observed that the pandemic has been exacerbated in recent years by the rise in education and crime.
It increases the weight of the debt and increases the capacity of the debtors to honor it.
“It is necessary that the global community act with speed and determination to ensure that the recent accumulation of debt does not result in a series of debt crisis”, advised Ayhan Kose, head of the Division of Criminal Justice, Finance and Institutions, citation press release.
“The world will not be allowed to lose another decade”.