As a professor of epidemiology of infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Adam Kucharski has been far too busy looking at many Premier League actions over the past few weeks. “I worked unhappily,” he says. As a football fan in England, he also could not escape the drama that envelops his favorite match.
Earlier this month, even as the UK began the third closure of the pandemic, government officials granted special dispensation to continue ‘elite’ sport. The results were not pretty, especially not on the field: Half a dozen Premier League players reprimanded their clubs for attending holiday parties. Viral videos showed overcrowded locker rooms, with unmasked celebrations spelling out throaty songs. One COVID-19 outbreak forced Aston Villa to play Liverpool with a list of U-23 and U-18 prospects, many of whom were dropped by their parents as they were too young to drive.
Against the backdrop of increasing cases and deaths, mainly due to a new, highly transmissible variant of COVID-19, this bad appearance has raised thorny questions about the dam. “There were, of course, the bubble systems with the NBA and other leagues – and in some cases it was very successful,” Kucharski said. ‘But it’s getting harder with larger amounts of community transfer. These questions therefore arise: What activities do we want to prioritize? … And I think some countries will soon have to make very difficult decisions about what to keep open. ‘
Illustration by Bryce Wood: Harrison Barden / USA Today Sports (Tipoff); Quinn Harris / USA Today Sports (background); iStock / Getty Images (COVID-19)
In the US, it was hoped that these issues were left behind last summer, when leagues emerged from the early pandemic hibernation to play in so-called bubbles again; Instead, like the virus itself, they have been increasing ever since. After failed Tests, the Browns lost two cornerbacks and their coach, Kevin Stefanski, for a playoff game; the Packers lost an offensive lineout. The NBA, faced by the cast, has postponed 13 games between Jan. 10 and 18. And in the NHL, reigning Western Conference champion Stars had an outbreak of 17 infected skaters at training camp.
As bad as it may seem, the UK is offering a sobering look at what may soon come upon the state. In particular, the rapid worldwide emergence of several over-infectious COVID-19 variants – especially the one causing devastation in British life – is expected to further threaten the US’s plodding path to herd immunity. Hospital systems are already pulling again. New death records are set every day. Vaccine explosions were incredibly slow and pandemic fatigue was on the rise, as evidenced by Tuscaloosa, who may soon feel the effects of the possible superspreader event that took place when Alabama fans won the sixth national title in football in the Nick Saban -era celebrated. Even then, the worst power still has yet to come.
“It’s like reading a thriller,” says Alessandro Vespignani, director of the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University, whose research focuses on modeling epidemics. “We deployed the vaccine. We see the light at the end of the tunnel. We can put this disease in the history books. … Then we got this twist in the plot and we said, ‘This tunnel is a little bit longer and it’s a little bit more complicated to get to the end.’ ”
Viruses mutate all the time. This was the first point highlighted by the eight medical experts consulted for this story. “This is the important background that there are tons and tons of mutations,” says Shira Doron, hospital epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center. ‘And usually they do not change the virus at all. They change the genetic code but do not make the virus different.
‘In this case, it has come to light that this genetic variant has surpassed the others in its occurrence and incidents, especially around London. If you see that one is more common than the other, you have to go: what is it about? ‘
The B117 lineage of COVID-19, first detected by British scientists for the first time in September, has since spread to about 50 countries, including the US, where its presence was confirmed in 14 states until Friday. The variant is characterized by a large number of mutations, including a number in the peak proteins that the virus uses to infiltrate host cells, and has an exponentially faster secondary attack. In other words: It spreads faster. “A lot of the data indicates a 40% to 50% increase in transfer,” Kucharski says. “If it’s really 50% higher … the existing measures that are only about controlling what is circulating will not be enough with this new variant.”
Although this one variant does not increase the risk of serious diseases, it will still be hurt, with more cases always overcrowding ICUs and increasing the death toll. Fortunately, scientists believe that the Pfizer / BioNTech and Moderna vaccines will be effective against this variant, but whether the vaccines will be distributed in time to stem further losses is another matter. “This window,” says Kucharski, “is crucial.”
What does a faster spread in English football look like: Aston Villa, who were infected, had to field a team of teenagers and 20-year-olds during an FA Cup match.
Hannah McKay / Pool / AFP / Getty Images
So far, research has shown no indication that this variant is transmitted in other ways than the common coronavirus (which moves largely through droplets in the air). But because state funding for the genomic testing of new mutations is minimal – “a big hole in our pandemic response”, says Doron, little is known about exactly why this one is more contagious. Or what it means for the public health guidelines we are asked to follow. “Six feet may not be enough,” said Penn State evolutionary microbiologist Andrew Read. “We do not know.”
One thing, however, seems all but certain: a highly contagious variant will spread widely in the US and soon. ‘It could be a disaster,’ says Doron, ‘because it comes on top of a boom after the holidays, on top of every part of this country on a [infection] upswing, very full of hospitals. … If you add anything, you are tilting the healthcare system over the breaking point. ‘
And since pro sports are a microcosm of the country, it’s not hard to guess what’s probably ahead in the NBA and NHL as well. “I suspect we will find the variant in the systems of the sports leagues,” says Amesh Adalja, an expert in infectious diseases at Johns Hopkins. And it “increases the game. Meaning: if you have a case of the new variant on your bank, it is likely that you will get more cases. ”
Until that happens, the same basic health and safety recommendations apply. “There is no reason to think that precautions such as masks, hand washing, social distance will be less influential,” said Nick Davies, another epidemiologist at the LSHTM. “It just means that the procedures have to be followed much stricter.”
If there are cracks in the defense, more infectious variants are likely to take advantage of it. Not long ago, the Celtics’ Tristan Thompson and Grant Williams went into quarantine after allegedly sharing a maskless car ride with infected teammate Robert Williams. None of the players contracted the virus, but next time they might not be so lucky.
“It’s no problem that the things that are out of the game ‘- such as talking face – to – face after a game or, for example, partying without a mask, because point guard Kyrie Irving has recently been with’ imposed a $ 50,000 fine for doing – ‘to be completely out of the question,’ “Doron said. If people really want to play, they should never communicate with anyone else. Go home, rest, come back for the game. But when you talk about a contact with sports, there is no way to eliminate the risk. Testing can reduce this. But if you come within six feet of people and touch people, there is no way. “
The potential consequences of another viral wave are acute. In the NBA, the Raptors moved to Tampa; in the NHL, the Sharks had to be forced to hold a training camp in Scottsdale, Ariz, but what gets bigger as a regional lockout? Each of these leagues built up a successful bubble before promising not to return in 2021. How will they react if the choice is between a different isolation or a different suspension of the game? And what is the threshold for that breaking glass scenario? When is it no longer responsible to cross the country to play games?
For now, these leagues are ahead. “Monitor the development, but nothing more at this point,” NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly wrote in an email. “The variant has not led us to change our protocols to this point.” The NBA tightened its rules last week, banning road hotel guests and, among other things, restricting new locker room meetings to less than ten minutes. “In ongoing consultation with CDC and Infectious Diseases specialists, we are taking measures to address the ongoing challenges of the pandemic, including new viral strains,” John DiFiori, director of the league’s sports medicine, sent an email. An NFL spokesman pointed to a recent appearance in the NFL Network by Chief Medical Officer Allen Sills, who said the league was investigating ‘new positive cases for the genes that would reflect one of these new variants. ‘
Several experts have suggested their constructive roles in combating everything that comes next in this pandemic. The NBA teamed up with a groundbreaking saliva test with Yale researchers during the playoff game; any of these leagues can fill a similar gap by funding genomic tests. ‘I would not say them has to do so, but the more people follow us, ‘says Adalja,’ the greater the chance that we will discover and understand new variants. ‘According to experts, athletes and team staff should set the minimum examples for the general public – which was not always the case. A recent letter from the Premier League leadership mentions ‘regarding scenes’, which reminded teams that players are prohibited from hugging, celebrating jerseys or exchanging jerseys. “And do not … go to a nightclub in the midst of a pandemic,” said University of Edinburgh virologist Elly Gaunt.
Back to the bubble? With procrastination piling up, it’s not hard to imagine for the NBA.
David E. Klutho / Sports Illustrated
Maybe, if all goes well, sports leagues are somehow confused by this gloomy winter, and it hangs on until players – and the rest of us – are finally all vaccinated. Until we reach the end of the tunnel.
“Of course we want sports, and we want activities that offer relaxation and fun,” says Vespignani. ‘And I understand that it’s hard for professional players – especially to play in an arena where there is no audience, to stay in a bubble. But these are problems that we all face in different ways. Children do not go to school. We work from home. So we all have to deal with it for a few more months and be very strict with the rules.
‘It’s like in football. We are in the red zone. You want to keep pushing. This is not the time to think about relaxation or victory celebration. We have to cross the border. ”
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