Three COVID-19 vaccines are currently available to Americans. However, one of them has some challenges. Johnson & Johnson will not be able to deliver as many doses of the vaccine in the next few weeks as originally hoped due to production problems at a contractor. Questions about whether the vaccine could cause blood clots on a very rare basis have also arisen.
With this headwind for J&J, the vaccines develop through Modern (NASDAQ: MRNA) and Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) (with his partner BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX)) is very popular. Both vaccines have very high efficacy levels. Both Moderna and Pfizer / BioNTech secured the supply for 300 million doses each with the US.
But new research findings seem to indicate that people receiving Moderna’s vaccine are more likely to experience reactions and side effects. Can this latest news advance the fate of Pfizer?
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More side effects for Moderna
Both Pfizer and Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccines use the same approach. Messenger RNA (mRNA) is injected into the body. This mRNA contains instructions for the production of proteins identical to the vein protein on the surface of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. The body then develops antibodies and T cells that can fight the virus in the future, thus providing protection against infection.
As the two vaccines follow the same approach, similar side effects have been reported in clinical trials conducted by Moderna and Pfizer / BioNTech. The most common reactions include injection site pain, fatigue and headache.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has tracked down data on side effects for both vaccines in the agency’s V-safe surveillance system. Last week, CDC scientists published an article in the online medical journal JAMA analyzing the V-safe data recorded between 14 December 2020 and 28 February 2021.
This analysis showed that 73.9% of respondents in the V-safe system experienced side effects after taking the first dose of Moderna COVID-19 vaccine. The number was lower – 65.4% – for individuals receiving the first dose of Pfizer’s vaccine.
It was a similar story after the second dose of each vaccine. Among the respondents who received Moderna’s shot, 81.9% reported experiencing side effects. For those who received the Pfizer vaccine, 68.6% reported a reaction after the second dose.
A positive effect for Pfizer?
Pfizer has already reported slightly higher efficacy for its COVID-19 vaccine than Moderna. Is the data showing that the vaccine produces fewer side effects possibly good news for the large pharmaceutical stock? Can be.
The US already has more than enough doses of COVID-19 vaccine to order to vaccinate all Americans this year. Several other developed countries have also entered into large supply agreements with various vaccine makers. It is possible that Pfizer may receive more orders due to the competitive advantages of the vaccine compared to Moderna’s vaccine. However, the short-term impact on Pfizer’s share price is likely to be relatively small.
However, this may be a different story in the long run. When countries are not forced to use vaccination, they can (and probably will) place more emphasis on the efficacy and safety profiles of the vaccines they buy. This may give Pfizer an edge over Moderna.
A relatively modest 10% increase in doses ordered each year could translate to more than $ 1 billion for Pfizer. Even after the profits are split with BioNTech, the big drugmaker will make a lot more money if it can beat Moderna in the market after the pandemic.
Changing dynamics
However, do not get the wagon in front of the horse. There are far too many changing dynamics in the COVID-19 vaccine space that could offset any benefit that Pfizer has over the latest CDC data.
The most important thing to keep in mind is probably the emergence of new variants. Pfizer and BioNTech have begun testing a third booster dose of their COVID-19 vaccine. Moderna is testing a modified version of its mRNA vaccine that specifically targets the B.1.351 variant that was first identified in South Africa.
The Moderna vaccine may show significantly greater efficacy against the South African variant than the Pfizer vaccine. If that happens, the chances of negative reactions are unlikely to help Pfizer compete with Moderna. There is also the possibility that another COVID-19 vaccine along the way will get authorization or approval, which is even safer and more effective than the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.
The good news still comes for Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine. This can cumulatively increase investors’ confidence in the stock. This is a side effect that Pfizer would like to see.
This article represents the opinion of the author, who may not be in agreement with the ‘official’ recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium advisory service. We are furry! Questioning an investment thesis – even one of our own – helps us all to think critically about investments and to make decisions that help us become smarter, happier and richer.