The Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 quickly disappeared from airline fleets. Many passengers like these second-flight aircraft, but they are out of favor with airlines. With significant improvements in dual jets, and a shift to lower capacity and more fuel efficient operations, we are unlikely to do one again soon, at least not for passenger use.
Two decks for more passengers
Both the Boeing 747 and the Airbus A380 came into being with the need to increase passenger capacity. The Boeing 747 was developed (based on a failed bid for a military transport aircraft) in response to Pan American World Airways’ request for an aircraft 2.5 times the size of the Boeing 707. The 707 was very successful for the airline, and it now wanted to expand the range and offer lower prices per seat.
And the A380 was developed to address the problem of airport congestion. A larger aircraft can help airlines operate at busy airports and make the most of their slots.
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Airlines have moved to smaller broad bodies
However, the situation has changed today for airlines. Maximizing passengers is no longer necessarily the priority. More efficient operation and cost reduction have become more important. This was clearly shown by the downfall of the big quadrilaterals in 2020.
Many of the benefits the A380 had hoped for did not work as well as expected. Many airlines have found themselves with an expensive aircraft that is difficult to operate and difficult to fill. Pre-pandemic still worked well on some routes, but was limited to the main hub routes between airports with limited slots.
The capability of twin-engine aircraft has also improved significantly over the past few decades. Extensive ETOPS ratings meant that twin-engine aircraft could suddenly operate much further than was historically the case. Engines are also becoming more powerful, meaning larger aircraft can be powered by a much more efficient twin-engine setup.
Two engines and a single deck in favor – at least for now
As a result, new larger aircraft such as the Boeing 787 and the new 777X and the Airbus A350 are all single-deck and twin-engine. It has lower capacities, but in some cases it is not much. The 777X, for example, sleeps 349 passengers compared to 410 on the 747-8.
But the fuel efficiency increase is significant. We previously compared the 747 and 777X to Simple Flying and showed that the 747 has a fuel cost of $ 13,380 per hour, compared to $ 9,366 per hour for the 777X. We also compared it for the A380 and the A350 and showed that the A350 is about twice as efficient.
And to further confirm, consider the declining value of the A380 in the used car market in 2020. Hi Fly was the only airline to ever tackle a used A380. With even the one who has now retired, there is little hope for a second life once this giant retirement age is reached.
Will there be another second plane?
Clearly, with the continued exit of both the 747 and, more recently, the A380, no new two-deck passenger aircraft is likely to be seen any time soon. Indeed, there is nothing in development by Airbus or Boeing. Russia and China are working together on a new high-capacity aircraft, but it will be a single-deck rival for the 777X and A350.
With what can currently be achieved with two engines, there seems to be little need to launch a new two-deck high-capacity aircraft that will require four more engines. Airlines prefer the flexibility of a smaller aircraft, so there are few routes that require the large capacity of something like an A380.
Maybe there will come a time when a plane with the weight of the A380 can be propelled by two engines. And if airlines are currently seeing the need for high-capacity flights in their schedules, or to handle their allocations better, manufacturers will certainly respond.
Maybe something bigger can be seen in the freight market. One of the main reasons why the 747 got its upper deck was to allow the opening of the nose and the full lower cargo deck. The 747-8 proves to be a popular cargo choice, and perhaps a larger cargo ship will be needed in the future. But at least for the use of passengers, the appearance of two decks at best is unfortunately a while away.