What appears to be a fourth wave of the COVID 19 pandemic has hit Michigan, the New York region and New England, and experts are not sure if it will remain limited.
‘The United States has entered into a fourth wave of transfers, and that cannot be disputed. Whether it remains as small outbreaks in the region, or that it is generalizing countrywide, remains to be seen, ”said dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at UC San Francisco, said at a city council meeting on campus Friday.
Nationally, there was an 8% week-on-week increase in the average daily number of newly diagnosed coronavirus cases, which rose to about 62,000 for the seven-day period that ended Wednesday, federal officials said Friday. The average daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 patients increased by 5% over the same period.
California, where the number of cases has dropped to levels not seen since the end of spring, is in a much better situation. The state reports averages of 2,500 to 2,700 cases daily. (During the worst fall and fall incidence, California reported 45,000 cases per day.) In addition, California had a coronavirus test positivity of 1% -2% over the past week – compared to 16% in Michigan and 9% in New Jersey.
“Here in California we are in a much better condition – we do not have an increase. But I want to point out that we are equal and that we do not see continued declines, ‘Rutherford said.
He and others expressed concern about Florida, the state with the highest concentration of confirmed cases of the British coronavirus variant, B.1.1.7, which is more transmissible and possibly more deadly than the conventional strain. Florida has no mandate across the country, and crowds of revelers during the spring break fear that travelers will spread the British variant further into the country. Over the past week, Florida has had a positive percentage of 9%, and it is climbing.
“We’ll have to see how it plays out,” Rutherford said.
In Michigan, the boom has accelerated since it began in mid-March, Rutherford said, and it looks like it’s heading for a peak similar to the state’s winter high. The Michigan boom appears to be tied to the British variant and was possibly reduced through high school sports, Rutherford said.
“Elsewhere – in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Delaware – there are a series of interconnected outbreaks, with more modest increases apparently due to metropolitan New York spreading to neighboring states,” he said. Rutherford said. said.
Other national experts echoed Rutherford’s concerns.
‘We’re on our way to the fourth boom. Business is on the rise. Variants increase. Variants are more deadly, “said Dr. Tom Frieden, a former director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, on ABC’s” Good Morning America “on Saturday. ‘We just have to hold on until a larger part – especially the defenseless – is vaccinated well and more of us are vaccinated, or we’ll have a big fourth boom. We fear a fourth boom. How big and deadly? It depends on us. ”
Some experts disagree with this, given how many people in the US have been vaccinated or have immunity as a result of a coronavirus infection.
“I think there is enough immunity in the population that you are not going to see a real fourth wave of infection,” said Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former head of the Food and Drug Administration, told CBS on Sunday “Face the Nation”. He added, however, that there are “bags of infection across the country, especially in younger people who have not yet been vaccinated, and also in children of school-going age.”
Gottlieb said he believes schools can stay open if they follow the safety practices of pandemic: ‘As one epidemiologist referred to this week, go to the full’ Harry Potter ‘and try to keep students within defined social cohorts so they do not mix with each other not. large groups. ”
According to federal data, California has the fourth highest number of cases in the country related to the British variant. A hopeful scenario provides for the distribution of the variant in the state hampered by the California variant, B.1.427 / B.1.429, which is more prevalent here.
“Hopefully we will be able to dodge this bullet, because it [U.K. strain] is a more transmissible strain and possibly a strain that causes serious diseases, ”Rutherford said.
More than 32% of California residents have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 15% have been fully vaccinated.
Recent data shows that the currently available vaccines provide adequate protection against the new variants. The vaccines provide a much more immune response than you need for the conventional coronavirus strain, Rutherford said. And even if it shows reduced efficacy against variants – such as the B.1.351 of South Africa and the P.1 strains of Brazil – the vaccines produce an immune response ‘two to three times more than you need’, said Rutherford. “So far so good.”
Despite the positive news about vaccination, the leading health official in the most populous province of Northern California, Santa Clara, warned that the decline in the daily number of cases there is slowing down.
‘We’re now seeing our rate slow down, and in some cases … an indication that it’s starting to tick. So maybe we got as low as we go, ‘says dr. Sara Cody, the health officer and director of public health in Santa Clara County. ‘Unfortunately, we all need to be very conscious and very careful to prevent a surge or even swell. We do not want this to happen. ”
The likelihood that another surge – or a lighter “swell” – will strike California will depend on the provision of vaccines and the behavior of residents.
“Vaccinations are going to help, but we need more supplies so we can get them out faster,” Cody said. ‘And we need people to just hold on a little longer: keep up your mask, slow down your journey, do not eat indoors, do not go to indoor bars, and do not hold an indoor gathering at your home. Even if it is allowed under the state rules, do not do it. It’s not safe. Not yet.”
Health officials acknowledged the apparent discrepancy in the mitigation of restrictions, while at the same time issuing a warning about the increase in cases.
According to dr. However, LA County Health Officer Muntu Davis said there were mixed messages about a new virus.
“This is, of course, what is happening within a pandemic,” Davis said Friday. ‘As you begin to see how the virus behaves, while you see when you have new countermeasures, whether vaccine or treatment, then we begin to learn more. But until we have the information, we have to proceed with a lot of caution, because everyone is in danger. ‘