The Pfizer vaccine needs a shot, probably within a year of completing the first two doses, company CEO Albert Bourla said in comments released on April 1 and released by Pfizer yesterday. .
Moderna has also announced a plan to have a booster shot ready by the fall to complete its two-dose vaccine course.
This has always been a possible scenario for the vaccination campaign. Data on the duration of immunity so far show that both Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines – both made using mRNA technology – are very effective six months after the shots, but the enhancers will further expand the strong immunity and possibly against emerging variants. protect.
More shots, more money for Pfizer and Moderna
However, vaccinations do not come for free, and providing a stimulus shot for current regimens is probably the first indication of how much long-term drug companies can earn with their Covid-19 vaccines.
Pfizer and Moderna did not respond to Quartz’s request for details on prospective price increases, but it is possible to calculate the revenue for it based on a few considerations.
“Sales at current prices would, in the long run, represent about a 50% increase in revenue,” said Christopher Snyder, a professor of economics at Dartmouth, who studied the economic aspects of vaccine development.
Moderna’s forecast for sales of the first two doses of the vaccine was $ 18.4 billion by 2021, so the shot could add about $ 9 billion to that. Pfizer predicted at least $ 15 billion in sales for 1 billion Covid-19 vaccine dosages, so the booster would bring in an additional $ 7.5 billion for the pharmaceutical giant.
‘The initial prices were set before any vaccine was approved and before anyone knew which vaccines would be most effective. Now that we know that the mRNA vaccines are excellent, it would not surprise me if the prices for boosters against new variants are a little higher, ‘says Alex Tabarrok, an economist at George Mason University.
But whether the price will remain the same is the big question, and there are arguments for increase or decrease.
The cases for a cheaper booster, and for a more expensive one
“On the one hand, the initial protection by the initial doses is probably worth more than supplementing the protection against the enhancer, and this lower value may lead to a lower price,” says Snyder. Part of the calculation behind the price of the vaccine was the savings on the defense of Covid-19 that the healthcare system would bring and the economic value of opening up countries as soon as possible.
The impact of booster shots on these two factors is slightly lower, so countries may not be willing to pay the same, although the benefits of the vaccine far outweigh its cost. In an article published in Science in March, the value in terms of economic impact is estimated at between $ 600 and $ 1,000 per person.
Still, the booster might cost more. Manufacturers are likely to have to invest in production capacity to deliver millions of doses in addition to their already stretched vaccine production, which could increase costs in some way. Furthermore, while companies have openly tried to determine reasonable costs for the first doses to avoid the accusations that they are exploiting the pandemic for profit, the booster shot may not carry the same ethical weight.
Pharmaceutical companies indicated during the post-pandemic that they wanted to renegotiate the price of the vaccines. When the worst days of an emergency are expected to be over, the Covid-19 booster shots look a bit like the annual flu vaccine – an important, routine vaccination, but not one that will make the difference between life like us did not even know it. and pandemic life.
There is more. While some trials are trying to mix different vaccinations, for example providing a second dose of Moderna after a first Pfizer shot, there is currently insufficient information on the efficacy of such an approach. This means that countries that are willing to maintain the immunity of their people – probably all countries – are to some extent stuck with the manufacturers of the vaccines they have already administered, which offers a bargaining advantage for pharmaceutical companies.
Still, pharmacists want to wait a little longer and milk the goodwill they enjoy after developing the vaccine, before raising the price.
Who is going to pay for the booster shot?
The question of who pays for the booster shot is easier to answer. So far, governments around the world have paid for the vaccine – for their own people and for poorer countries through partnerships like Covax, as well as bilateral agreements.
Governments in rich countries will continue to pay for the vaccine for as long as it is recommended, as is the case with all vaccines, and certainly expand the existing coverage through the boost shot. The exception to this rule is usually the US, where routine vaccinations – including child immunization – can incur some business costs.
So far, vaccines have been offered free of charge in the US, even for those who do not have insurance. The government has covered the expenses through the relief fund set up by the 2020 CARES Act. While it can not be said with certainty that it will also cover the booster shot, it will probably do – the benefit of keeping immunity high and weighing the country far too much more than the cost of the vaccine.