TOKYO – While visiting Washington this week, it looks like Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga of Japan may take a victory round.
Mr. Suga is the first foreign leader invited by President Biden to the White House who has promised to forge alliances. Japan already had the distinction last month of being the first international destination for the new U.S. secretaries of state and defense. And Mr. Suga will not have to grapple with threats of higher tariffs or the need for constant vlei that the predecessor of mr. Biden did not drive.
But even though relations between the two countries are calming, Japan is facing a dangerous moment, while the United States is urging it to address the most blatant threat to stability in Asia more precisely: China.
This is the latest step in a centuries-old dance between the two nations. Since the United States entered into an alliance with Japan during its post-war occupation, Tokyo has sought the assurance of protection from Washington, while Washington has pushed Tokyo to do more to secure its own defenses.
For decades during the Cold War, the emerging threats seemed to have come from Europe. While Mr. Suga goes to Washington, Japan confronts dangers in its own backyard.
“We are in a whole new era in which the threat is directed at Asia, and Japan is at the forefront of the threat,” said Jennifer Lind, associate professor of government at Dartmouth College, who specializes in international security. in East Asia, said. .
“The alliance between America and Japan is at a crossroads,” she said. Lind said. “The alliance must decide how we want to respond to the growing threat from China and the Chinese agenda for international order.”
Analysts and former officials said it was time for Japan to expand its thinking on what a summit with its key ally could achieve.
Usually, a Japanese prime minister has a number of agenda items to tick off. This visit is no different. The two leaders are expected to talk about the coronavirus pandemic, trade, the importance of securing supply chains for components such as semiconductors, the North Korean nuclear threat and shared goals regarding climate change.
“Usually there is a sort of shopping list when a Japanese prime minister goes to the United States: ‘Would you say that? Will you reassure us about it? “Ichiro Fujisaki, a former Japanese ambassador to the United States, said.
This time he said, ‘that’s not what we should do. I think we need to talk big about the world and the Asia-Pacific. ”
Such bold statements would run counter to the profound instincts of Japanese officials. They tended to avoid mentioning China or its most sensitive interests, preferring the vague and comprehensive language over the need to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
But as China has repeatedly ignored diplomatic or lawful attempts to repeat its aggressive actions in the South China and East China Seas, some say Japan needs to be more specific about what it can do in the event of a military conflict. .
“Who does not want freedom and openness?” says Jeffrey Hornung, an analyst at RAND Corporation. ‘By signing up for these things, you are subtly heading to China. But what are you going to do if the things you say you are going to defend come under attack? ‘
Japanese leaders typically use consultations with U.S. presidents to obtain assurances that the United States, which has about 50,000 troops in Japan, will defend the country’s right to control the uninhabited Senkaku Islands. Over the past year, China, which also claims the islands, has been sending boats in or near Japan’s territorial waters around the islands.
Perhaps the greatest risk for conflict, however, is in the Strait of Taiwan, where China has sent warplanes to threaten the democratic island, which Beijing considers a rogue territory. When Defense Minister Lloyd J. Austin III and Foreign Minister Antony J. Blinken visited Tokyo last month, they and their Japanese counterparts issued a statement stressing ‘the importance of peace and stability’. in the Strait of Taiwan ‘.
As mnr. Biden and mr. Suga includes similar language in a joint statement this week, it is the first time that the leaders of the United States and Japan have explicitly mentioned Taiwan since 1969. At that time, President Richard M. Nixon and Prime Minister Eisaku Sato issued a statement in which the Japanese leader said that “maintaining peace and security in the Taiwan area is also important for the peace and security of Japan.”
The funny details about how Japan can support the United States and Taiwan in the event of an invasion by Beijing probably fall outside the scope of this week’s talks. While Mr. Biden is unlikely to make blunt demands that Japan pay more for its defense, as President Donald J. Trump said, the current president could bolster his government’s recent signals about efforts to deter China. One possibility is that Japan could be asked to offer long-range missiles, a proposal that is likely to face major domestic opposition.
Mr. Biden and Suga expect to discuss not only China’s military actions, but also its human rights record, as well as the coup in Myanmar – probably the difference between the leaders.
The Biden government called China’s repression of Uyghur Muslims in the Xinjiang region a genocide and imposed sanctions on Chinese officials. It also imposed sanctions on military generals in Myanmar. But Japan tends to be more cautious in addressing human rights or direct actions such as economic sanctions.
Tobias Harris, an expert on Japanese politics at Teneo Intelligence in Washington, said the Suga administration only addresses human rights ‘rhetorically’.
“If you actually look at what they’re doing, he’s trying to keep their options a bit open.”
For Japan, which does large trade with China and has investments in Myanmar, there is a clear fear of setbacks, and an understanding that Beijing could turn off the spigot at any time.
Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Tokyo, noted that at the beginning of the pandemic, China designated certain medicines and surgical masks as ‘strategic goods’ and stopped sending them to Japan. “We can no longer rely on the free flow of goods from China,” he said. Watanabe said.
Some Japanese officials believe that Mr. Suga should not rush to Mr. Biden’s harder line to follow over China and Myanmar. Kunihiko Miyake, a former Japanese diplomat who advises Suga, said Japan’s approach to such countries was “more dialogue than punishment.”
A person familiar with the thinking of mr. Suga and his cabinet, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Japan, despite rising tensions, did not want to upset its relationship with China. The person said that Japan should send a clear message to China on issues such as the rule of law, but that the two parties should also maintain high-level communication.
Mr. Biden could also try to get Japan involved on climate change. Both Washington and Tokyo are working to drastically reduce carbon emissions, and Mr. Biden is hosting a climate summit next week. One goal is to persuade Japan to suspend its financial support for coal projects abroad, which it has already begun to reduce.
Mr. Suga may be hoping that a fruitful trip to Washington will strengthen his position at home, where he is politically vulnerable. The Japanese public is dissatisfied with the management of the pandemic and a slow explosion of the vaccine (although Mr Suga was released to travel on his own after being vaccinated himself), and the majority is against the decision to make the Olympics this summer offer.
The success of the trip may depend in part on whether Mr. Suga a relationship with mr. Praying develops. Seasoned viewers from Japan will see Mr. Suga, who is not known for his charisma, is watching closely, especially after his predecessor, Shinzo Abe, spent a lot of time and effort getting Mr.
“We have two older and very traditional politicians in many ways,” said Kristin Vekasi, associate professor of political science at the University of Maine. “I’ll be curious to see what they do.”
Makiko Inoue contribution made.