Minority leader Mitch McConnell is no longer in favor of the Senate arrangement – after two Democrats confirmed they would not blow up the legislative filibuster any time soon.
Over the past few weeks, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and McConnell have been working to negotiate the organizing resolution – which includes committee membership and the allocation of funding – in the 50-50 Senate. The leaders were previously at a dead end because McConnell demanded that the Democrats commit to keeping the legislative filibuster intact as part of the resolution, something Schumer was unwilling to do because it leveraged the party in the negotiations on future legislation would diminish.
As the organizational resolution could become filibuster – and 60 votes would be needed to pass – McConnell’s opposition could enable him to progress.
And while he did not get the amendments to the organizational resolution he wanted, McConnell’s approach still worked in a way: amid the impasse over the agreement, two Senate Democrats – Joe Manchin ( D-WV) and Kyrsten Cinema (D-AZ) – said in public that they would not vote to eliminate the filibuster. Without their support, Democrats will simply not have the numbers to make a rule change: all 50 members of the caucus will have to get behind the change in the filibuster to make it happen. (It is noteworthy that this position is consistent with the views expressed by both legislators previously.)
It’s because of Sinema and Manchin’s statements that McConnell now says he’s satisfied and willing to continue with the arrangement measure, after causing some troublesome delays. Without this resolution, Democrats could not take over formal positions from the committee chair, and new members still have to sit on the committees. Republicans also retained the ability to oversee nominees and other policy priorities.
“Today, two Democratic senators have publicly confirmed that they will not vote to end the legislative filibuster,” McConnell said in a statement Monday night. “With this assurance, I look forward to continuing with a power-sharing agreement based on that precedent.”
McConnell’s statement came as Democrats’ pressure for him to surrender increased – and because his refusal to start a compromise threatened to threaten Senate affairs. ‘We’m glad Senator McConnell threw in the towel and gave up his ridiculous claim. “We look forward to organizing the Senate under Democratic control and getting big, brave things done for the American people,” said Justin Goodman, a spokesman for Schumer.
McConnell has secured a commitment from some Democrats, but that could still change
While McConnell did not get the promise he wanted from Schumer about retaining the legislative filibuster, he did effectively get one from Manchin and Cinema – whose votes would be necessary to approve a rule change.
Both legislatures have issued strong statements expressing their opposition to the inflating of the legislative filibuster, which requires most bills to reach a threshold of 60 votes to pass.
“She is not prepared to change her mind about eliminating the filibuster,” a Cinema spokeswoman told the Washington Post on Monday. Manchin confirms this attitude in an interview with Politico: ‘If I had not said it very clearly, Sen. McConnell may not understand it, I basically want to tell you. That I will not vote in this Congress, it’s been two years, right? ‘
Armed with this assurance, McConnell indicated he would be comfortable promoting the organizational resolution as his focus kept the filibuster on maintaining the minority’s ability to block legislation with which he disagreed. Of course, the position of legislators on the filibuster may still change, despite the statements they have issued.
Eventually, maintaining the filibuster would make it difficult to pass any comprehensive legislation, as the Democrats would need every member of their caucus plus ten Republicans. This is why many of the more progressive members of the caucus, such as Sens Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Ed Markey (D-MA), have called for the filibuster to be abolished. And some other Democrats, including those who were reluctant to change the rules, also acknowledged this problem.
A statement from Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) to the New York Times sums up how some Democrats are currently unwilling to end the filibuster, thinking about the issue. They may be in favor of maintaining it now, but are open to considering more drastic action if McConnell maintains the obstruction of Biden’s agenda. “If everything filibuster after filibuster is roadblock to roadblock, my opinion may change,” said Tester, who is currently in favor of keeping the filibuster.
Manchin and Cinema said they do not expect their positions to shift. Whether they maintain this position in light of the ongoing Republican opposition, however, remains to be seen.