Natural disasters in Central America, economic devastation, gang wars, political repression and a new administration are driving the sharp increase in border crossings between the United States and Mexico – an emerging crisis for President Biden.
Why it matters: Migration flow is complicated and is quickly politicized. Biden’s policies probably send signals that encourage the boom, but that’s only a small reason why it’s happening.
- Conditions in foreign countries force migrants to leave (pressure factors) while the situation in the US pulls them (pull factors.)
- Many people have been forced to flee from disturbing problems in their homelands, experts say. Others hope for better economic prospects.
What’s new: It is only a few months since two devastating hurricanes left thousands homeless in Honduras. The country’s largest newspaper, Diario El Heraldo, reported that many stay in Tegucigalpa shelters without going anywhere.
- The storms, droughts and pandemics caused food shortages throughout Central America.
- Violence among gangs in Honduras is also raging, even in rural areas, forcing residents to flee to El Norte.
- Shelters in Mexico also report an increase in migrants in Central America.
- ‘We have a huge stream and there is no capacity. The situation could get out of control, “Gabriel Romero, a priest who runs a trek house in the southern Mexican state of Tabasco, told The Associated Press.
Experts said the move From the onslaught of the Trump administration to the perception of a more welcoming Biden government also contributes to the hope of migrants for the US as a refuge.
- Regardless of the readiness of the border systems, migrants who have considered coming to the U.S. are now likely to see it as their window to undertake the often dangerous journey, experts said.
- “We know enough about migration to know that the most reliable sources of information for prospective migrants are usually not what public officials say – but what it is they hear through their own networks … as well as through the smugglers,” said Doris Meissner. , the Migration Policy Institute, told Axios.
Between the lines: The increase in migrating children from Central America has been increasing for weeks.
- Border patrol agents arrested more than 900 unaccompanied migrant children in the El Paso sector in December, which includes Far West Texas and New Mexico, El Paso Matters reported.
- This is the highest number since June 2019, according to customs and border protection data.
The whole picture: In addition, there are several long-term trends contributing to the increase in migrants seeking asylum in the US
- Border numbers usually rise with warmer weather and peak around May. The numbers are currently extremely high, but the timing follows a typical seasonal pattern.
- Migrants often come from Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador, which “have long been in a serious desperate state,” Meissner said. “It’s a series of things. It’s clear that the issue of jobs and economy and poverty, etc. But it’s covered with serious violence and gang recruitment and a lot of domestic abuse.”
- Climate change has affected the important coffee farming in Guatemala, which has been a contributing factor to migration from there.
There is also a long history of economic migration of Central American countries and Mexico.
- “The country of Honduras has become incredibly dependent on migration to the United States and the income that migrants receive in the U.S. and return to their families,” said Daniel Reichman, an expert on Honduran migration.
- The asylum system was not intended for economic migration, but it is often the only path available. Reichman argues that U.S. immigration laws should better reflect the desire of many migrants to work in the country, but then return home.
The back story: The current boom of child migrants at the border is not the first. Former President Donald Trump had a family and child crisis in 2019, and former President Barack Obama faced another in 2014.
- “If you do not launch a Marshall Plan for Central America, you will not stop the people from leaving their countries due to violence and economic devastation,” said Fernando García, executive director of the Border Network for Human Rights. , said.
The conclusion: “In terms of the way analysts and politicians see these issues, they tend to emphasize the pressure or really emphasize the emphasis,” Meissner said. “But the fact is: it’s both.”