As of Thursday, about 120,000 Minnesotans had received their first dose of COVID-19 vaccine. The first shots go to health workers and employees and residents of long-term care facilities.
It is expected to take months for all Minnesotans to be vaccinated, but after nearly a year of compiling some of the richest aspects of life, many people understandably dream of a time when they can embrace their mother, hold on to the new grandchild. or can travel with less. fear of COVID-19.
When does that time come?
More to learn
It is difficult to predict when life will become normal. This is because it is not clear when enough people will be vaccinated to achieve ‘herd immunity’, which refers to a scenario where so many people have antibodies against COVID-19, that it is difficult for the coronavirus to infect a person. to move person. This is estimated to happen when perhaps 75 to 85 percent of the people are vaccinated.
How quickly herd immunity is achieved depends on how quickly people are vaccinated, said Dr. Jill Foster, a pediatric infectious disease physician at the University of Minnesota Medical School and M Health Fairview.
If there are major logistical problems, or if many people refuse the vaccine, or try to drag it, it will take longer to achieve herd immunity. If the process goes smoothly, it is easy for people to take their shots, and many people decide to be vaccinated. “I would say that by June enough of the population will be vaccinated so that people can almost return to normal,” Foster said.
Because of the importance of making a vaccine available quickly, the process of clinical trials has been accelerated: pharmaceutical companies have performed several phases of clinical trials simultaneously instead of one after the other, and the federal government has paid to to produce vaccine candidates before they were approved so that people outside the gate could be vaccinated if vaccines were found to be safe. But there are no cuts to corners that jeopardize testing the safety of the vaccine, health officials said.
Trials suggest that both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are fairly effective, with an estimated 95 percent of the time COVID-19 disease occurring.
‘Having a vaccine is like having a bulletproof vest. It helps you, but if you go to an area where bullets are flying everywhere, you will still not be safe, ‘Foster said.
Foster said there are still many things we do not know about them yet that could affect how quickly life becomes normal. This includes how effective the vaccine is over age, and whether the vaccines not only prevent people from becoming ill from the disease, but also prevent them from transmitting it to others.
But good news? These big questions about the vaccine need to be answered in the coming months as more people are vaccinated.
Calculated risks
Now three things are important to remember: getting the vaccine reduces your chances of getting COVID-19 sick. Two, we do not yet know to what extent the vaccine prevents you from transmitting COVID-19 to other people, even if you are not ill. And three, and perhaps most important, to get the vaccine does not mean that the world is with COVID-19, because we know it’s over for you.
Because the vaccines are not known to be 100 percent effective in preventing disease, and because they may not block transmission, Minnesotans will need to keep their personal behaviors in check: wear masks and keep their social distance, even if they are vaccinated. until herd immunity is achieved.
‘The top people to get the vaccine – we get the vaccine because we work in high-risk areas. We are not getting the vaccine so we can stop wearing a mask tomorrow, “said Dr. Aditya Shah, an infectious disease consultant at the Mayo Clinic.
Erin Clark / Pool via REUTERS Trials suggest that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are quite effective, and are estimated to prevent serious COVID-19 disease 95 percent of the time.
This is not to say that things will not change if a larger number of Minnesotans are vaccinated against COVID-19. Even before herd immunity is achieved, people can run calculated risks of visiting family members, for example, Shah said.
“In May, if most people get the vaccine, you have the vaccine, your family members have the vaccine and you still follow the rules of social distance and masking, then it will be safer,” to see family, Shah said. This is because people who follow the recommendations are much less likely to take COVID-19 with them to an event.
What does this mean for grandma visiting?
“There is no completely safe or absolutely unsafe thing,” Foster said. ‘People will have to choose from you, I really want to go talk to grandma, so maybe I’m not going to a bar for the next two weeks’, or participate in other activities that could lead to COVID-19 transfer.