SALTMER CITY – Influenza in Utah and the United States remains low, a trend first seen months ago in the southern hemisphere of the world.
While flu infections are low, COVID-19 cases are still increasing across the country, with at least nearly 1,000 daily in Utah since the end of September.
For some it does not make sense – if public health measures protect people against flu and COVID-19, why is the increase in coronavirus and influenza cases so low?
According to Intermountain Healthcare, specialist dr. Eddie Stenehjem, the answer is really simple.
“There was low flu in the US, everyone wore masks, took social distance and had the high vaccination (flu),” Stenehjem said in a question and answer this week. to see any significant flu activity. “
Why COVID-19 cases have not decreased? Here’s what Stenehjem said.
The new coronavirus is more contagious than flu.
Scientists use a mathematical term called R0 (pronounced R-nothing) to indicate how easily a disease or virus spreads from person to person in a community.
Experts have calculated COVID-19’s average R0 at between 2 and 4, meaning an infected person could spread the disease to two or more people, the World Health Organization said in a June report. By comparison, the average R0 for flu in the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 was approximately between 1 and 2, according to an article published in BMC Medicine.
The number can vary greatly, even between different areas and states, depending on the outbreak.
The R0 is fluid and does not paint a complete picture of how contagious a disease is, but provides a starting point, despite its many limitations. One thing remains clear, however: COVID-19 is more contagious than flu.
It was already in the community
COVID-19 has been spreading in communities since spring, meaning the virus was already widespread, Stenehjem explained.
On the other hand, flu is usually brought into a community from the southern hemisphere. But with low cases of flu there, it never really got here, he said.
This time last year, Intermountain saw about 80-100 flu cases daily. This year, the health care system has reported only a few cases in the past few months.
Intermountain hospitals are actively looking for flu cases with extensive testing, Stenehjem said.
“It’s not because of a lack of vision, but just that we do not see the flu,” he said.
The Utah Department of Health is also detecting flu cases in the state and from the week of December 13-19, the cases remained low. So far this flu season, which began in early October, a total of seven people have been admitted to hospital with the flu.
“We really don’t see many other viruses circulating in Utah,” Stenehjem said. “COVID-19 is by far the most prominent respiratory virus infection we see here in Utah.”
We do not have a COVID-vaccinated population
In recent weeks, COVID-19 vaccines have spread across the country to those eligible to receive them in the first phase, but the population is nowhere near herd immunity.
Influenza vaccinations, on the other hand, have largely taken place across the country.
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 192.3 million flu shots have been distributed since last week, and it is possible that up to 198 million doses could be distributed in the 2020-21 season. The numbers have increased significantly from 2019, where 174 million were distributed over the flu season 2019-2020.
According to Utah, there have been a greater number of flu vaccinations in different age groups compared to last year.
However, it is important to note that some age groups did not follow the pattern and reported lower flu vaccination rates than in 2019, such as the age group of 6 months to 4 years.
In general, it seems that flu vaccinations nationwide are higher than last year, which according to Stenehjem contributes to the low flu numbers.
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Lauren Bennett