We’ve heard a lot of discussions about Boeing’s next step in the mid-size market for wide bottoms. Plans for the New Midsize Airplane (NMA), named 797, have been in place for some time, but were put on hold with the arrival of a new CEO. There is a gap to fill, and Airbus is ahead with the A321XLR. As reduced demand is likely to be a problem for some time, supply in this market is important for Boeing.
NMA and 797 proposals
There have been discussions since 2015 about Boeing’s development of a new mid-range aircraft. It was seen as a new design – a replacement for the 757, but probably takes the wide form of the 767.
Air Lease Corporation CEO Steve Udvar-Hazy discussed this in 2015 in a report by FlightGlobal. He expressed a strong opinion at the time that Boeing would rather look at a new design than simply an update of 757. He said:
‘We are very, very intimately involved with Boeing … and based on everything we’ve seen, I think the idea that is currently being rediscovered is not yet on the table. I think Boeing is looking at an aircraft that is not only a 757 replacement, but also one that can do things beyond its capabilities in terms of range and size. ‘
Several airlines have shown interest in a new aircraft, and that was a big part of the discussions at the Paris Air Show in 2015. Nothing was released from Boeing, but several sources discussed the outcome. The NMA is expected to be larger than the 757, with a capacity of about 220 and a range of 8,300 kilometers. Airbus CEO Fabrice Bregier has estimated that it would cost Boeing about $ 10 billion to launch such a new aircraft.
There are also rumors about a protracted version (which will follow later). This will increase the passenger capacity to 267, with a range of 7778 kilometers. The two models soon got the name 797, although Boeing never mentioned it nor did it officially launch the project.
Abandon plans in 2020
Despite interest from some airlines, there was little progress and no launch for the 797. The idea aroused interest from United (a major Boeing customer) as well as Delta Air Lines, Qantas and Icelandair.
It was hoped that an official launch would take place at the 2019 Paris Air Show. With Boeing questioning the twin 737 MAX disasters, it was a muted attendance at the air show, and no announcement was made.
The changes to the NMA plans were confirmed in January 2020. The new CEO of Boeing, Dave Calhoun, explained that the plans will be revisited. He said:
“Since the first clean sheet of paper was taken on it, things have changed a bit … the competitive playing field is a bit different.”
At the time, there were several cases that conspired to reconsider the plans:
- Boeing has had ongoing problems with the 737 MAX. Other projects suffered and delayed because Boeing was solving the problems and re-employing the type.
- With the A321LR and later the A321XLR, Airbus launched a viable competitor for the target NMA market. The A321XLR seats 220 and offers a range of up to 8700 kilometers. It took away potential orders from Boeing – before even launching a product.
- Was there really funding available for the huge cost of developing new aircraft? The slowdown in the pandemic would still have come into effect at that point, but Boeing was already suffering financially with the 737 MAX expenses.
Airbus continued with the A321LR and A321XLR
Boeing was looking at the NMA project to fill a definite gap in the market. As a replacement for the aging 757, it would fill the gap between the top of the 737 MAX and the smallest 787. Without anything being developed, Boeing has no supply in this area. Boeing previously estimated about 5,000 to 7,000 units in the market.
Airbus, conversely, continued to pay attention to this area of the market. It chose to expand the capabilities of the A320 series rather than develop a clean-skin design. Of course, it takes narrow bodies into the market, rather than the broad body that Boeing was looking at.
Airbus introduced the A321LR in 2015 and it joined the launch customer Arkia in 2018. It expanded the range of the A321 to 7,400 kilometers using additional fuel tanks, with a capacity of 206 in a typical two-class layout, with a limit of 240. With the ability to operate trans-Atlantic flights, it quickly entered the space the NMA could have occupied.
TAP Air Portugal currently has the largest fleet of nine A321LR aircraft, with three more on order. Other operators include Arkia, Aer Lingus, Air Astana, SAS, Air Azores, Gulf Air and Air Transat. JetBlue has started delivering its order of 13 aircraft and will launch a long-awaited transatlantic service with a new Mint business class. Qatar Airways has 10 on order.
Continue with the A321XLR
However, the real game changer is the upcoming A321XLR. It offers a range of 8,700 kilometers with additional fuel tanks in the middle and rear. It should enter the market in 2023.
There are currently at least 450 orders for the A321XLR. The largest is from American Airlines and United, with 50 aircraft each. Qantas, AirAsia, Air Arabia, Wizz Air, Frontier, VietJet and JetBlue have more than ten aircraft orders.
This, of course, presents a serious challenge for Boeing. It is possible to revisit its NMA plans, but it is unlikely to abandon it altogether and leave this market segment to its competitor. Demand for new aircraft may suffer from the current slowdown, but lower-capacity aircraft are likely to emerge stronger as the situation improves.
Serving long-distance routes with a lower capacity not only reflects the growing shift to point-to-point operations, but also reflects reduced demand.
What can the new NMA look like there?
So what can Boeing launch as a new NMA to compete with the A321XLR? Boeing did not confirm anything, but some possibilities were raised.
A complete, new clean skin design remains possible. But since it was wheeled in the past, it seems unlikely. This is an expensive option, and of course it takes a long time. Money is tight these days, and Boeing is already behind in the mid-size market.
Will Boeing opt for a narrow or wide body? At the time of the halt to the NMA project, CEO David Calhoun (during a call for company earnings) explained that he wanted to understand both options. He said:
‘[Boeing] will not design our next aircraft based on the A321 … I know where the NMA is now being targeted. I want to make sure I understand everything about the broad body and world. ”
A new narrow design
An option for a narrow design is to build on the 737 MAX (as Airbus did with the A321neo). We previously looked at Boeing’s potential Future Small Airplane (FSA). It will compete directly with the A321XLR, building on the 737 MAX with a new design that allows for extra fuel storage.
Simple Flying is looking at one proposal for this in 2020. Boeing filed a patent for a new design in 2009. It contains an almost elliptical diameter, which provides enough space for a second passage.
Update of the 757 or 767
Another option is to update the already popular 757 or 767. These aircraft fit well in the middle of the market segment, and it will be much cheaper than a brand new development.
A 757 MAX would make sense in many ways. Many airlines know and like the 757, and it is of course already certified. A model similar to the 757-300 seats about 240 passengers and offers improved range and efficiency with the addition of new engines. New cabin technology and integration of composite materials can, of course, provide further improvements.
Similarly, a 767X is rumored. It will redevelop the original broad body with the General Electric GEnx and will likely offer a passenger and a cargo variant. It will probably need a custom landing gear due to the larger engines, but few other changes.
If you think you’ve heard of the 767X, it’s because it was originally introduced in the 1980s. It was presented as a partial second deck 767 variant, but it never took it out of the proposal stage.
Look at the 787-3 again
If Boeing goes with a broad person, it could develop the 787 as the basis for the NMA. The original plan for the 787 included a short-range 787-3 variant. It has a capacity of 290 to 330 (between 787-9 and 787-10), but in an aircraft of the same size as the 787-8. With denser seats, the range will be reduced.
Such a model would have suited the American or Japanese domestic market well. The Japanese airlines ANA and Japan Airlines ordered the 787-3, but switched to the 787-8 after program delays.
Can the 787-3 now fulfill the role of the NMA? The possibility of a 787X has already been discussed. Its efficiency is an improvement over the upgrade of the 757 or 767. And Boeing has efficient 787 production lines in operation. Time will tell which option Boeing will proceed with.
One thing’s for sure, Boeing needs to do something. It can not only leave this market segment to its European competitor. If that does happen, it’s closing the door to a growing and profitable field, and one in which Airbus already has a good lead.
What do you think of Boeing’s NMA plans? Was it right to stop it, and where do you think development will be next? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.