WASHINGTON (AP) – President Joe Biden confronts the political risk of big ambitions.
As one of his first appearances, Biden presented a comprehensive immigration overhaul last week, the estimated 11 million people who are illegally in the United States would provide a path to U.S. citizenship. It would also codify provisions that remove some of President Donald Trump’s hard line policies, including trying to end the existing, protected legal status for many immigrants brought to the US as children and strikes at asylum rules.
This is exactly the kind of measure that many Latino activists have longed for, especially after the difficult approach of the Trump era. But it must compete with Biden’s other legislative goals for markets, including a $ 1.9 billion plan to fight the coronavirus, an infrastructure package that promotes green energy initiatives and a ‘public option’ to extend health insurance brei.
In the best of circumstances, it would be difficult to introduce such a wide range of legislation. But in a narrowly divided Congress, that may be impossible. And that has worried Latinos, the country’s fastest-growing voting bloc, that Biden and congressional leaders could cut the deals that weaken the final product. too much – or succeed in succeeding at nothing.
“This can not be a situation where merely a visionary bill – a message bill – is sent to Congress and nothing happens to it,” said Marielena Hincapié, executive director of the National Immigration Law Center, which advocates for immigrants with a low income, said. “There is an expectation that they will deliver it and that there is now a mandate for Biden to be an unapologetically immigrant and to have a political imperative to do so, and the Democrats do that as well.”
If Latinos finally feel betrayed, the political consequences for Democrats could be long-lasting. The 2020 election provided several warning signs that, despite Democratic efforts to build a multiracial coalition, Latino support could be in jeopardy.
Biden has been viewed with skepticism by some Latino activists as a result of his association with former President Barack Obama, who has been dubbed the “CEO”. for the record number of immigrants removed from the country during his administration. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders defeated Biden in the caucuses in Nevada and the California by-election, which served as early barometers of the Latin vote.
According to AP VoteCast, Biden won 63% of Latin voters in his race against Trump, compared to Trump’s 35%., a survey of more than 110,000 voters nationwide. But Trump has lowered the margin somewhat in some swing states like Nevada and also received a push from Latino men, of whom 39% supported him compared to 33% of Latino women.
Biden becomes the first Democratic presidential candidate since 1996 to carry Arizona, in part due to strong grassroots support of Mexican American groups opposed to strict GOP immigration policies that go back decades. But he lost Florida by underperforming in the largest Spanish province, Miami-Dade, where the Trump campaign’s anti-socialist message resonated with Cuban and some Venezuelan Americans.
Biden also fell short in Texas, although Kamala Harris devoted valuable, late campaign time there. The ticket has lost some sparsely populated but heavily Mexican provinces along the Mexican border, where law enforcement agencies are the largest employers and the GOP’s immigration policy has zero tolerance.
There were more warning signs for House Democrats, who lost four seats in California and two in South Florida while not being able to pick up one in Texas. Increasing Spanish populations reflected in new U.S. census figures could get Texas and Florida congressional districts ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, which could rectify the problem for Democrats all the more.
The urgency does not lose at Biden. He spent months advocating private immigration advocates that major reforms would be at the top of his to-do list. As vice president, he has watched as the Obama administration uses larger congressional majorities to speed up a bill to stimulate financial crisis and its signing on the health care law, while thwarting an immigration overhaul.
‘It means so much to us to propose to a new president on Day 1 a daring, visionary immigration reform. Not Day 2. Not Day 3. Not a year later, ‘said Democratic Senator Bob Menendez of New Jersey, the main sponsor of his chamber. the Biden package.
Menendez was part of a dual immigration plan campaigning for the ‘Gang of Eight’ senators that collapsed in 2013. Obama then took executive action to provide legal status to millions of young immigrants. President George W. Bush also pushed for an immigration package – with a view to increasing Latino support for Republicans ahead of the 2008 election – only to see it fail in Congress.
Menendez acknowledged that the latest bill would need the support of at least ten Republican senators to remove the 60-vote barrier to the word, and that he was “under no illusions” about how difficult it would be .
Former Representative Carlos Curbelo, a moderate Republican from Florida, said Biden may find GOP support, but will likely have to deal with far less than what was in his original proposal.
“Many Republicans are concerned about primary challenges,” Curbelo said, adding that Trump and his supporters’ fight against immigration protests means there is’ political danger to Republicans’.
But he also said Democrats could alienate some of their own base by apparently illegally prioritizing the needs of people in the country over those of struggling U.S. citizens and thus “appear to be overreacting from the perspective of swinging and independent voters. . “
In fact, Democrats have not always been universally set up behind an immigration overhaul, arguing that it could lead to an influx of cheap labor that harms American workers. Some of the party’s senators have joined Republicans in sinking Bush’s bill.
Latinos have not yet forgotten the failures of immigration in the past and have often blamed Democrats more than Republicans.
Chuck Roca, head of Nuestro PAC, which spent $ 4 million on advertising to promote Biden in Arizona, said that while Spanish parties have traditionally tended to support Democrats, it has begun to see trends over the past decade where more than independent or register without party affiliation. . The electorate can still be won back, he said, but only if Latinos see real change on important issues like immigration, even if it is piece by piece. ‘
“They need to get something done if they want to reverse the loss of Latino voters,” said Rocha, who led the Latino voters ‘outreach campaign for Sanders’ presidential campaign. “They must now do everything in their power to get Latinos back.”
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Associated Press author Alan Fram contributed to this report.