Dr. Ashish Jha is concerned that the number of COVID-19 infections in the United States has apparently stopped declining after a previous downward trend.
The dean of the Brown University School of Public Health wrote on Twitter that the country still sees an average of 50,000 new coronavirus cases daily – the same number seen at the height of the boom last summer.
The doctor said he suspected more spread of the more transmissible virus variant B.1.1.7, first detected in the UK, is behind the halt in the country’s downward infection trends, along with many states move forward with the removal of coronavirus restrictions.
“This is a problem,” Jha wrote on Twitter.
Joseph Allen, an associate professor and director of the Healthy Buildings program at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, wrote on Twitter that the stall to which Jha pointed at the national level is clear from Boston’s wastewater data. Cambridge-based Biobot Analytics, which tests for coronavirus in wastewater at the Deer Island treatment plant, found the amount of virus detected correlates with new cases diagnosed four to ten days later.
You know where you can see ‘the stall’ @ashishkjha talk about it? State-level data. You know where you can see it early? Wastewater data.
Here’s Boston. Wastewater told us that the stall took place a few weeks ago https://t.co/VOjm96eI0K pic.twitter.com/6LuPKl4zyY
– Joseph Allen (@j_g_allen) 18 March 2021
As for the outbreak, another problem Jha has identified is that the national data misses the underlying trends in states.
The doctor stressed that a month ago there was a declining rate, but as of Wednesday, 15 countries had reported more cases than they had seen two weeks earlier, and 19 had higher positive tests.
“Even hospitalizations are increasing in some places,” he wrote. “Not a surprise. B.1.1.7 probably represents about 40% of infections in the United States. This probably means that approximately 20,000 infections have been identified today from B.1.1.7. This will become the dominant variant in [the] next few weeks. ”
Jha said the concern is that as the more contagious variant becomes widespread and dominant, it will increase nails in cases, hospitalizations and deaths. took place in Europe.
The two ways to prevent the same situation in the United States are to ‘get vaccinated fast’ and keep COVID-19 restrictions in place for a few more weeks.
“We do the first, not the second,” Jha said. ‘Every high-risk person should be able to get a vaccine by mid-end of April. It’s so close. Every infection that kills someone today is someone who is vaccinated in the [next] a few weeks. We therefore need to keep restrictions on public health a little longer. ”
He urged officials not to relax indoor masks, to return to full restaurants and bars, or to test.
Massachusetts goes into the first step of the final reopening phase Monday, to allow large rooms – including Fenway Park, Gillette Stadium and TD Garden – to reopen with a capacity limit of 12 percent.
“We are still at a high level of infection,” Jha said. “We stopped falling. Am I sure we’ll see things increase? No, but worried. Let’s end with the vaccination of high-risk people. Then relax public health measures in a smart way. This will enable us to enjoy a wonderful summer. ‘
In the past week, the number of infections in America has stopped decreasing
At about 50K infections every day
About where we were at the height of summer
Why the stall?
Suspicious B.1.1.7 is now really starting to have an effect
And states open
This is a problem
Back
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) 18 March 2021
Not a surprise
B.1.1.7 – probably represents about 40% of infections in the USA today
This probably means that approximately 20,000 infections have been identified today from B.1.1.7
It will become the dominant variant in the next few weeks
So what is the problem? Look at Europe
3/6
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) 18 March 2021
Every high-risk person should be able to get vaccinated by mid-end of April
It’s so close
Every infection that kills someone today is someone who will be vaccinated within a few weeks
So we need to keep public health restrictions a little longer
5/7
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) 18 March 2021
Bottom line?
We are still at a high level of infection
We stopped falling
Am I sure we’ll see things increase? No, but worried
Let us vaccinate people at high risk
Then relax public health measures wisely
This will enable us to enjoy a wonderful summer
Fin
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) 18 March 2021
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