On January 3, Iran’s leadership lamented the one-year anniversary of the US air strike that killed Islamic State General Qassem Soleimani and senior Iraqi military commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. And the world looks at the possibility of imminent armed conflict in the Middle East as Iranian-sponsored Iraqi militias carry out both rocket attacks on US sites and convoy bombings, and US B-52 bombers fly and fleet the most difficult positioning – hitting forces to hit the Gulf.
A number of observers have speculated that a violent clash with Iran would be President Donald Trump’s last and most destabilizing act in office. But there is every possibility that revenge for Soleimani and Muhandis may be the first crisis of the Biden government.
The evidence for a post-Jan. 20 confrontation has been taking place for several weeks. Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, warned on December 16 that Iran’s revenge would come “on its own time and place”, and therefore not necessarily under Trump, who promised to strike back hard if Americans were harmed. Inside Iraq, Iran’s key militants, Kataib Hezbollah, have warned of retaliatory attacks until Trump leaves, and even Mohammed al-Hashemi, an Iraqi government envoy sent to Iran, was quoted in Lebanon’s al-Akhbar newspaper to beg Tehran to remain calm “until the Biden government takes over the Trump presidency.”
Iran may limit its allies to the end of the Trump administration, but perhaps not much further. In the inner circles of the US government where threats are assessed, the transition on January 20 is seen as a dangerous (and overlooked) window for escalation. One of Joe Biden’s first duties may be to respond to a fatal attack on Americans in Iraq, Syria or the Gulf region.
Iraq has a habit of presenting early challenges to new presidents: Bill Clinton’s first use of force was in Iraq, the strike of the cross-country rocket in June 1993 that avenged Saddam Hussein on former President George Herbert Walker Bush two months earlier killed. President George W. Bush’s first use of force was also in Iraq – a spate of airstrikes in February 2001 that irritated Bush when they interrupted his first foreign trip (to Mexico).
The first military crisis of a new president can be a fundamental moment, especially as great power rivals and rogue states take the measure of the new leader. Biden will have to weigh the consequences of action or lack: one part of its political base wants to distinguish the new government from the old and extend an open hand to Iran, while the foreign policy traditionalists must emphasize the need to demonstrate determination, especially if an American is killed.
The best outcome for all is that Iran and its proxies acknowledge that striking American interests on Biden’s watch have in no way a safer or lesser consequence than risking such a move under Trump. The president-elect must clearly state before January 20 that he is ready, minute one, day one, to respond firmly to any threat to Americans.
On January 20, the new government must also silently signal to Iran that their hand is outstretched, but that revenge against Trump is still revenge against America and that it will place additional obstacles in the way of easing sanctions.
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The incoming Biden team struggling to access the information normally provided during a transition. A very early priority should be to review the military options prepared to familiarize the team and enable them to quickly request and delete additions. Biden’s experienced national security team, especially the nominated candidate for defense, Lloyd Austin, a former commander of US troops in the Middle East, knows that the difficult moments after an attack are not the right time to catch up or to discovering that you have no military options. that pass rate.
If Iran or Iran-backed militias in Iraq attack US interests too late for Trump to respond, or early in the Biden presidency, there will be a tension between quickly reaching a deterrent and establishing US credibility against a careful weighing of the facts. and options.
If the attack is powerful enough to kill Americans – who are usually well protected – it may have gotten a vote from Iran, but the incoming government can wait to determine what the connection is. Clinton waited 72 days until he hit the Iraqi intelligence service for their role in the 1993 Bush’s attempted life.
If there is evidence of an Iranian role, a Biden government – like Clinton’s earlier, but hopefully faster – should not do the right thing to fend off future attacks on Americans. Only if Iran believes this is the case will they hesitate in the first place against striking US personnel.
What the US can and should do immediately is indicate a cost to any attack on Americans, strike back at Iran’s extensive network and retain the option for further, more extensive strikes. Whenever rocket and bomb attacks against US troops in Iraq took place this year, the network responsible for the attacks was clear to the US intelligence community within hours or days: a combination of the three leading groups of Iraq’s networks – Kata’ib Hezbollah, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba. These groups are vulnerable to strikes and are already attacking the US
Iran’s military partners are working hard every day to disguise the attribution of attacks on US targets in Iraq, and a staggering number of new brands such as Ashab al-Kahf (‘Companions of the Cave’) and Sarayat Qassem al-Jabbarin (“Destroyer of Oppressors Company”). On March 13, this tactic successfully prevented Britain from joining a US strike in Iraq to avenge the military killing of two Americans and one Briton. British planes fired and sat armed on the runway while government lawyers argued over who should actually get the blame and on whom to target. Eventually, the Trump administration could not convince the British that Kata’ib Hezbollah was the right target, and British officials refused to allow their planes to take off. Biden administration will strengthen the deterrent if it does not allow potential attackers to play this shell game.
While the inauguration on January 20 will be an exciting moment for Joe Biden and his team, it is also a moment where his steel can be tested. History has shown that Iran is investigating the decision of US administrations, and that it can simultaneously face a US president and sit at a negotiating table. Iran is struggling to restrain its proxy from taking revenge, but sees the possibility of opening a Biden government as the first safe moment to do so. Every other potential attacker in the world will watch and take notice.