Scientists from the World Health Organization say that the latest coronavirus is likely to become endemic, or spread permanently in the population, and that a more deadly pandemic is on the horizon.
Although public health experts have previously spoken out about the prospect that the new coronavirus or SARS-CoV-2 will not disappear, but rather remain a recurring, though diminished health threat, the year-end remarks by WHO officials on Monday came down to what one scientific name. a “wake-up call” for governments around the world.
“It seems that the fate of SARS-CoV-2 should become endemic, just like four other human coronaviruses,” said Dr. David Heymann, chair of the WHO’s Strategic and Technical Advisory Group on Infectious Hazards, said.
The four other human coronaviruses that have become endemic are responsible for about a quarter of all colds. The most recent endemic coronaviruses, HKU1 and NL63, were discovered after the SARS outbreak in 2003-2004.
Heymann said the virus will continue to change as it propagates in human cells, especially in [geographical] areas with more intense transmission. “
The agency’s dark projection comes because several countries have already started mass vaccinations, but because the disease continues to infect an alarming number in hospitalizations and deaths – and new concerns about the virus are emerging. The UK is currently struggling with a new coronavirus variant that experts say is significantly more transmissible. Meanwhile, doctors around the world are finding that a small number of people infected with COVID-19 appear to be developing debilitating and potentially dangerous psychotic reactions.
During the personal information session, dr. Mark Ryan, head of the WHO emergency program, agrees with his colleague’s prediction.
“The likely scenario is that the virus will become another endemic virus that will remain a threat, but a very low level in the context of an effective global vaccination program,” he said.
To date, only one human infectious disease, smallpox, has been declared eradicated by the WHO.
Perhaps in the most serious warning, Ryan said the current pandemic “is not necessarily the big one.” He said that although the deaths of about 1.8 million people worldwide had been killed, the mortality rate for COVID-19 was ‘fairly low’ compared to other emerging diseases.
Although it is difficult to measure how deadly a disease is in the midst of a pandemic, the WHO recently set the mortality rate of COVID-19 at 0.6% or less than 1%. In comparison, the death toll for SARS was almost 10%. For Ebola, the number is between 25% and 90%.
“It’s a wake-up call,” Ryan said.
Dr. Amesh Adalja, a specialist in infectious diseases and pandemics at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Safety, said the WHO statements were not particularly surprising. He predicted early on that the virus was on its way to becoming endemic.
“For me, it was not even a question,” he said.
Adalja now plans for SARS-CoV-2 to become another virus that people face year in and year out. While this may sound worrying, he said he believes the presence of an effective vaccine will shift the disease from a public health emergency to another respiratory illness such as the flu.
Meanwhile, Dr. Jeffrey Shaman, a professor of environmental health sciences in Columbia, who recently wrote a paper on the scenarios in which the virus becomes endemic, said he remains ambivalent about the outcome.
He said that although he has been tested by studies showing that humans show a strong and durable immune response to COVID-19, suggesting that the virus may decline and disappear, he is also concerned about the increasing evidence of recurrent infections.
One study in Mexico, the largest to date on reinfections, found that at least 285 individuals contracted the disease twice. But it is still unclear how widespread the phenomenon is.
Similar to other Adalja, Shaman said that if the coronavirus becomes endemic, recurrent infections may be less serious or even benign with the help of vaccinations.
“It may not necessarily be something that burdens society too much,” he said.
One of the most important lessons of the pandemic was the importance of investing in public health infrastructure. Mayor Bill de Blasio recently announced plans to build a $ 20 million pandemic response institute in New York City to prepare for future outbreaks. The seed was planted more than ten years ago, when mayors, under Mayor Michael Bloomberg, envisioned a thriving biotechnology sector in Manhattan to draw knowledge of the best research facilities in the city. The development that led to the East Side is now home to the city’s Pandemic Response Laboratory, which processes coronavirus tests for 20,000 people a day.
But Shaman warned that complacency is always a risk, especially if a few years would pass without another serious health emergency and as government officials deal with budgetary crises and competitive priorities such as the climate crisis.
“Unfortunately, the reality, especially for places with a limited income stream, is that if it’s in the rearview mirror and we’re 5, 10 years away, there’s going to be different conversations about how you prioritize resources,” Shaman said.